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Wednesday, 09 September 09
CHINESE INTEREST IN AUSTRALIA COAL TICKS UP AS PRICES FALL


After a lull of about two months, Australian thermal coal producers are now seeing renewed interest from Chinese buyers for spot cargoes in the fourth quarter amid a drop in coal prices, industry sources said.

Some analysts said China's demand for imported coal could increase further in coming months, as a recent wave of coal mine closures triggered by a mine explosion could raise domestic coal prices, making imports more attractive.

Australian producers said Chinese buyers were mostly seeking off-specification coal, with high heating value and ash content, for delivery through the rest of the year, while some buyers were also keen to book in shipments for delivery in early 2010.

However, at least three Australian producers said they had little of this high ash coal available to sell, after having sold large amounts of this type of coal to China over the second quarter.

"The economics look like the Chinese are now in favour of Australian coal, and there is also a notable pickup in enquiries from them on the back of freight easing and lower coal prices," a marketing executive at a large local coal mining firm said.

"But there's not much of those coal grades available now. And given the export constraints, producers would rather keep some spare tonnage as we head into winter months in the northern hemisphere, when prices are expected to go higher."

Australia's thermal coal prices on the globalCOAL Newcastle weekly index have fallen about 13 per cent since August to hover near a three and a half month low around $U66 a tonne, based on free-on-board (FOB) prices at the Newcastle port.

The globalCOAL benchmark price is based on coal with a heating value of 6,322 kcal/kg (GAR) and a maximum ash content of 15 per cent.

But high ash coal that the Chinese typically buy is much cheaper.

Some producers offer coal with 20 per cent ash content as low as about $US61, which takes its landed price into China to between $US90 and $US93 a tonne - compared with a domestic landed cost of around $US97 a tonne for coal with a heating value of 5,800 kcal/kg (NAR).

Analysts said Asian coal prices were poised for a rebound on the back of rising Chinese imports.

"Seaborne thermal coal prices may receive support in coming months following the closure of hundreds of small Chinese coal mines due to an accident," commodities analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia David Moore said in a note.

In Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, producers and traders said China's renewed interest in imports had helped to soak up the market's excess supplies.

A surprising spell of dry weather, along with a drop in domestic coal demand, has resulted in a deluge of Indonesian coal and prompted producers in recent months to sell their supplies at very low margins amid stiff competition and tepid demand.

"Demand from Cina has improved over the past few weeks and that's helping to inject life into a market that would otherwise be struggling very hard to get by," one Indonesian producer said.

"The Chinese are also driving a hard bargain, but we're happy as long as we're able to sell the extra tonnes."

Another Indonesian producer said the firm had sold about 200,000 tonnes of sub-bituminous coal into China over the past month, with prices fixed at around $US45.50 a tonne FOB, based on coal with a heating value of 4,700 kcal/kg (NAR) and a maximum of five per cent ash.

In related news, The City of Pingdingshan in central China's Henan Province has ordered all 157 coal mine shafts within its district to close, after a mine explosion killed 35 people, Xinhua News Agency reported.
Source: Business Spectator



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