COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at least until early next year.
The world’s coal industry has operated under stressful conditions since early 2012 until April 2016 due to a combination of oversupply and sinking demand. After several years of coma, coal has been a surprise positive performer this year, supported by China’s new policy on its domestic coal miners. Today the coal is the top attractive and the hottest commodity in the world.
Now coal prices are going vertical, continuing its rally since April this year. The price increase is almost on a daily basis and producers were kept revising their prices upwards on a regular basis for Q4’16 deliveries as well as Q1’17 supplies.
The end-users of coal might face tougher quarters, as prices continue to rise strongly in most of the coal producing counties. The coal buyers were almost panic to see the current price trends and trying to secure the coal for Q4’16 deliveries at the best level. However, those "wait-and-see" buyers now paying a higher price than just three months back what they paid.
Average CS 5000 GAR coal index (Indonesian origin) rose 4.42% week over week, shows CS (i) Coal Index weekly closing figures.
The CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) weekly index was also increased 2.72 % percent week-over-week this past week. The weekly index was rose 8.31% month over month.
The CS (i) Coal index is newly established an independent coal benchmark forecast for Indonesian particular coal types. The CS (i) Coal indices are generated through a Technology aided system, based on COALspot’s own proprietary algorithm requiring minimal human involvement. Therefore, these can be considered as a set of highly transparent & realistic indices for the Indonesian coals of 5700, 5000, 4200 and 3800 GAR grades.
CS (i) coal indices are designed to act as independent coal forecaster for Indonesian coal, identify market trends and serve as a benchmark for decision makers (for active coal producers, Traders and end-users) as well as helping market players to optimize trading and investment strategies.
Technology Aided CS (i) Coal indices are produced in accordance with the strict, pre-defined and fully transparent methodology and delivered via COALspot.com’s online platform through the inputs provided by panelists comprising consumers, producers and traders of Indonesian coal on a real-time basis during Indonesian office hours.
The coal market has been oversupplied for years which dragged prices down. However the recent move by the Chinese government, the thermal coal prices started to rise since April this year. Many analysts expect thermal prices to keep gaining for the rest of this year and possibly into Q1 next year.
The CS 42 (4200 GAR) Index increased by 1.61% week over week on 14 October 2016, while CS 38 Index which is representing 3800 GAR coal of Indonesian origin was rose 3.14% for the same period.
Year-On-Year (16 October 2015 – 14 October 2016)
CS 38 Coal Index up 28.41%
CS 42 Coal Index up 35.27%
CS 50 Coal Index up 33.43%
CS 57 Coal Index up 18.03%
Year-To-Date (8 Jan – 14 October 2016)
CS 38 Coal Index up 19.61%
CS 42 Coal Index up 39.80%
CS 50 Coal Index up 37.11%
CS 57 Coal Index up 21.50%
CS 38 - TM 40%, Ash 5% Max, Sulphur 0.4% Max and Calorific Value (GAR) 3,800 Kcal/kg
CS 42 - TM 35%, Ash 6% Max, Sulphur 0.8% Max and Calorific Value (GAR) 4,200Kcal/kg
CS 50 - TM 26%, Ash 7% Max, Sulphur 0.8% Max and Calorific Value (GAR) 5,000 Kcal/kg
CS 57 - TM 18%, Ash 12% Max, Sulphur 1.0% Max and Calorific Value (GAR) 5,700 Kcal/kg
(All parameters are in ARB basis)
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