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Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
IntermodalAs we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Panamax segments, as they are currently the most attractive candidates in the second-hand market.

During the first three months of 2016, we witnessed a sluggish SnP market along with a downward trend in freight rates that forced ship owners to mainly trade their vessels in the depressed spot market, in order to keep repositioning with the hope that earnings would eventually recover. Needless to say that interest in the SnP market was hard to find amidst all time low earnings in some cases, while the few ship owners that did inspect back then offered significantly low. As a result the market witnessed exceptionally competitive prices in both segments for vessels around 10 years old, especially in Q1.

To put thigs in perspective, the M/V ‘TENSEI MARU’ (52k,blt 07, Japan)  was sold at the end of February around $ 6.5m to Bangladeshi buyers, whereas this week it is rumoured that Bangladeshi buyers offered xs $ 9.0m for a similar tonnage vessel, namely the M/V ‘OCEAN PARADISE’ (58k,blt 07, Cebu), which translates to an increase of more than 40%. In the Panamax segment, a representative example of this appreciation is the M/V ‘LOWLANDS CAMELLIA’ (76k, blt 06, Japan) which was sold around $ 5.9m in the beginning of March, whereas a similar vessel currently has an estimated value of xs $8.0m, with rumours spreading that a private Japanese Panamax, built in 2006 has been fixed at these levels.

Without a doubt the fact that freight rates have moved up a bit to healthier levels has certainly supported asset prices, but we believe that the upward movement in second-hand values has more to do with the fact that many ship owners want to expand their fleet with modern tonnage while prices are still low and less with the recent freight rate improvement. Another sign of the rebound on the SnP market during the last months is the interest of ship owners globally in Chinese tonnage, something that in the beginning of the year was non-existent.

Since the Posidonia event in June 45 vessels from Supramax to Kamsarmax built 2001 onwards have been sold, while during the period starting in January and finishing just before the event, only 25 reported sales of Chinese build vessels in similar age and size were recorded. A big number of these vessels were seized by banks and were therefore sold in distressed prices, while the number of distressed deals coming from troubled yards was also significant, which makes hard to accurately capture the volatility in asset prices as far as the aforementioned Chinese tonnage is concerned.

What we can assume though is that the prices of vessels built in a-list Chinese yards are definitely higher now compared to the first months of the year, while on top of that more buyers are now inspecting and offer more competitively for these vessels, surely nowhere close to the levels of similar Japanese built tonnage, but definitely higher than before.

All attention eyes are now on the last quarter of the year. If the freight market continues to improve then it should support asset prices to an even bigger extent than what they already have, possibly bringing more perspective buyers back from the sidelines in the never ending effort to ride the upside.
By George Iliopoulos
SnP Broker


Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.


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