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Wednesday, 24 August 16
MARKET INSIGHT
IntermodalBrazil and the world bid farewell on Sunday to the first Olympic Games in South America in the midst of a finale meant to be both one last bash and to take care of some business — namely signal the transition to the 2020 Summer Olympics in Japan. The theme was “Brazilians can do with their bare hands,” a nod to the emerging economy of the world’s fifth most-populous nation, whilst the world now turns their attention to the world’s third-largest economy, Japan, which most certainly can do it by using robots...However, at a time that Japan is facing unprecedented levels of budget deficit, plans for bold stimulus packages raise further concerns. Japan’s top government spokesmen have in the recent past ruled out the issuance of deficit bonds to fund an economic stimulus package planned for the autumn, hinting at the use of construction bonds for longer-term investments. Let’s hope that shipping, which is an important pillar of the Japanese sourcing capacity receives the support it deserves in the process.

Meanwhile, one of the most paradoxical summers in terms of snp activity is coming to an end, further underlining the illiquidity of the tanker sector and the lack of interest for the container and offshore segments.

Given the lack of finance during all shipping recessions, the redeeming feature of the idiosyncratic shipping investment model is the opportunity it presents during times of high volatility; i.e. based on the basic capital asset pricing (CAP) model used by most investment analysts, which equates volatility with risk, it is this volatility (high risk) and low returns that distinguishes shipping from other investments. In other words, given the lack of finance, it is at times of collapsing earnings that market pundits should recognize the asset value opportunities and move accordingly.

This summer’s paradox on the other hand means that the number of sales in the tanker sector –especially the crude- which has suffered a tremendous blow in earnings is attracting scarce buying interest, whereas the dry bulk sector is finding a strong footing both in healthy volumes of deals transacted and in asset values which are steadily going up despite a rather “zero sum game” earnings timeline. The reasons for such behavior are multiple but recognizing the trend itself is sufficient to make it worth keeping a closer look at any pattern/reaction forming in the near future.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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