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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 27 June 16
INDONESIA BANS (AGAIN) SHIPS SAILING TO THE PHILIPPINES FROM INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Transport Ministry strictly prohibited harbour masters issuing permits to all Indonesian-flagged vessels bound for the ...
Friday, 24 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP MARGINALLY
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.4 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SMALL RISE IN SHIPPING CONFIDENCE - MOORE STEPHENS
In May 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.1 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freig ...
Monday, 20 June 16
CS COAL INDICES CONTINUE UPWARD TREND SINCE END APRIL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up again by 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton this past we ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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