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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 06 July 16
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
After a fairly silent first half of the year in the ship repair sector, we have finally a harmonized workload in the shipyards around the world. Ma ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the mon ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
SPOT COAL INDEXES FOR INDONESIAN COAL CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.83 percent week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week, sh ...
Monday, 04 July 16
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE CLIMBED 2.30% IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in July 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the r ...
Monday, 04 July 16
BDI ROSE ON STRONGER DEMAND ACROSS ALL VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 11.16 percent from la ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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