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Thursday, 07 July 16
CONSOLIDATION TO RULE OVER SHIPPING, AS EXECUTIVES SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, INDIA AND EUROPE SAYS NORTON ROSE SURVEY
 The transport sector is looking to Asia Pacific as the key market for investment over the next five years, according to the seventh The way ahead Transport survey from global law firm Norton Rose Fulbright. China and India are the most popular jurisdictions for investment, followed by the US, with growth through consolidation viewed as the best investment opportunity currently. While confidence among respondents from the aviation and rail industries is high, owing to lower oil prices, the availability of funding and the impact of infrastructure improvements, the shipping industry remains the least optimistic as a result of overcapacity in many subsectors of the market.
Over half (52%) of all respondents to the Norton Rose Fulbright survey agree that a global recession poses the greatest threat to their industry. However, despite political uncertainty, most agree that the transport sector can expect to enjoy further growth over the next five years. Rising passenger numbers and freight volumes are anticipated (by 73%) and an increase in the number of routes and services is expected (52%).
Investment in technology is expected to rise, according to 67%, with low carbon technology and predictive analytics expected to represent the most significant driver of change in the transport sector over the next five years.
Infrastructure remains a key theme for the sector. After consolidation, infrastructure improvements are viewed as the best investment opportunity currently (by 19%), and infrastructure investment is seen as the most helpful form of government support (by 25%). For the aviation, rail and road industries, inadequate infrastructure is seen as the greatest challenge to the operational efficiency of their industries.
Bank debt, capital markets and private equity will represent transport businesses’ main sources of funding over the next two years, and 74% of respondents expect the availability of funds to stay the same, or even increase, over the next five years.
Harry Theochari, global head of transport at Norton Rose Fulbright, comments:
“The transport sector is continuing to look to Asia Pacific for investment opportunities, encouraged by rising demand and China’s ambitious Belt and Road initiative, a modern day silk road which will improve China’s infrastructure links with the rest of the world.
“Sentiment is high in the aviation and rail industries, buoyed by the expectation of increased passenger numbers. However, shipping continues to feel the effects of overcapacity in many markets, and an increase in enforcement actions is widely predicted, although in the longer term respondents believe conditions will improve.
“Investment in infrastructure and technology, and consolidation through both M&A and joint ventures, will be key drivers for transforming the transport sector and assisting growth.
“The adoption of new technology in particular will help to address numerous issues the sector has been grappling with in recent years, such as low carbon technology to meet increasingly stringent environmental legislation, and predictive analytics to anticipate repairs and maintenance and better understand and forecast consumer behavior.
“While respondents are most fearful of the impact of a worldwide recession, they will be watching closely the implications of the UK’s referendum result. The transport sector is international and highly regulated and any UK exit from the EU would need to take into account a number of complex issues.”
Shipping
Shipping is the least optimistic industry within the transport sector, by a significant margin. Only 15% believe that current market conditions are positive, down from 33% in 2015 and 69% in 2014.
Overcapacity is the principal reason given for this lack of optimism (66%), followed, to a lesser extent, by economic uncertainty in key markets (27%).
Respondents are more optimistic when asked to consider the outlook for shipping over the next five years. Fares and freight costs will increase according to 67% and the same proportion anticipate an upturn in passenger numbers and freight volumes. The number of routes and services offered is also expected to rise, according to 35%. However, just 22% believe that funding will become more readily available and 64% think that the number of enforcement actions will increase as lenders seek to protect their positions and recover losses. Most (68%) expect fuel costs to rise.
Investment opportunities
Much of the shipping industry (58%) continues to favour Asia Pacific for investment opportunities over the next two to five years, followed, to a far lesser extent, by Europe (16%). China (17%) and India (16%) remain the most popular markets for investment.
A merger or acquisition is seen as the optimal investment opportunity (by 34%, up from 29% in 2015), while 13% favour joint ventures, alliances and pools (down from 28% in 2015).
Respondents expect consolidation to be at the centre of shipping businesses’ strategies over the next 12 months, either in the form of M&A (22%) or joint ventures (19%), while 22% expect a focus on the disposal of non-core assets. Almost three-quarters (72%) expect investment in technology to increase over the next five years, with low carbon technology expected to have the most significant impact on the industry during this period (by 33%), followed by predictive analytics (by 24%).
Regulation
Almost half (42%) believe that greater transparency in the application and enforcement of existing and proposed regulations would be the most helpful form of government support for the shipping industry, more so than fiscal incentives (32%) or investment in infrastructure (29%). Environmental regulation is seen as the regulation that has had the greatest impact on shipping over the past decade (by 49%), followed by trade and financial sanctions (by 25%).
Supply and demand imbalances are seen as the greatest challenge to the operational efficiency of the industry (by 47%), followed by a lack of qualified people (12%) and emission controls (9%). A global recession is seen as the greatest threat to the health of shipping over the next five years (by 68%). To a lesser extent, respondents are also concerned about the impact of enforcement by creditors on debt obligations (12%) and continued political and economic uncertainty in the Eurozone (8%).
Bank debt is once again expected to act as shipping’s primary source of funding over the next two years (22%), followed by shareholder support (18%) and private equity (16%).
Despite the problem of overcapacity in many sub-sectors of the industry, fuelled by new build vessels coming on to the market, 11% think that ECA funding will be the industry’s main
source of finance.
Source: Norton Rose Fulbright | Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 05 May 16
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, AS HOLIDAYS AROUND THE WORLD HURT DEMAND - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market’s recent rally has been put on a temporary hold, as various holidays around the world have put a stop in it. In its lates ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
COAL IMPORTS: A VOLATILE MATTER OR STILL POWERING DOWN? - CLARKSONS
Chinese coal imports decreased significantly in 2014-15, and so far in 2016 the pace of decline appears to have slowed, with imports even recording ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
IS THE DRY BULK MARKET OUT OF THE WOODS YET, OR NOT? - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things are beginning to brighten up in the beleaguered dry bulk market, which is riding on a multi-week rally to find itself around the “psyc ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
POWER - WEEK: REAL EXAMPLES AND CASE STUDIES
POWER WEEK
7 - 11 November 2016, PARKROYAL on Beach Road Hotel, Singapore
www.power-week.com
Overview
Designed for the global e ...
Tuesday, 03 May 16
HOW TO AVOID THE LATEST CARGO FRAUDS - BIMCO
BIMCO receives regular reports from members around the world about cargo fraud. This week alone we have had two reports of cargoes being fixed (or ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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