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Thursday, 07 July 16
CONSOLIDATION TO RULE OVER SHIPPING, AS EXECUTIVES SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, INDIA AND EUROPE SAYS NORTON ROSE SURVEY
 The transport sector is looking to Asia Pacific as the key market for investment over the next five years, according to the seventh The way ahead Transport survey from global law firm Norton Rose Fulbright. China and India are the most popular jurisdictions for investment, followed by the US, with growth through consolidation viewed as the best investment opportunity currently. While confidence among respondents from the aviation and rail industries is high, owing to lower oil prices, the availability of funding and the impact of infrastructure improvements, the shipping industry remains the least optimistic as a result of overcapacity in many subsectors of the market.
Over half (52%) of all respondents to the Norton Rose Fulbright survey agree that a global recession poses the greatest threat to their industry. However, despite political uncertainty, most agree that the transport sector can expect to enjoy further growth over the next five years. Rising passenger numbers and freight volumes are anticipated (by 73%) and an increase in the number of routes and services is expected (52%).
Investment in technology is expected to rise, according to 67%, with low carbon technology and predictive analytics expected to represent the most significant driver of change in the transport sector over the next five years.
Infrastructure remains a key theme for the sector. After consolidation, infrastructure improvements are viewed as the best investment opportunity currently (by 19%), and infrastructure investment is seen as the most helpful form of government support (by 25%). For the aviation, rail and road industries, inadequate infrastructure is seen as the greatest challenge to the operational efficiency of their industries.
Bank debt, capital markets and private equity will represent transport businesses’ main sources of funding over the next two years, and 74% of respondents expect the availability of funds to stay the same, or even increase, over the next five years.
Harry Theochari, global head of transport at Norton Rose Fulbright, comments:
“The transport sector is continuing to look to Asia Pacific for investment opportunities, encouraged by rising demand and China’s ambitious Belt and Road initiative, a modern day silk road which will improve China’s infrastructure links with the rest of the world.
“Sentiment is high in the aviation and rail industries, buoyed by the expectation of increased passenger numbers. However, shipping continues to feel the effects of overcapacity in many markets, and an increase in enforcement actions is widely predicted, although in the longer term respondents believe conditions will improve.
“Investment in infrastructure and technology, and consolidation through both M&A and joint ventures, will be key drivers for transforming the transport sector and assisting growth.
“The adoption of new technology in particular will help to address numerous issues the sector has been grappling with in recent years, such as low carbon technology to meet increasingly stringent environmental legislation, and predictive analytics to anticipate repairs and maintenance and better understand and forecast consumer behavior.
“While respondents are most fearful of the impact of a worldwide recession, they will be watching closely the implications of the UK’s referendum result. The transport sector is international and highly regulated and any UK exit from the EU would need to take into account a number of complex issues.”
Shipping
Shipping is the least optimistic industry within the transport sector, by a significant margin. Only 15% believe that current market conditions are positive, down from 33% in 2015 and 69% in 2014.
Overcapacity is the principal reason given for this lack of optimism (66%), followed, to a lesser extent, by economic uncertainty in key markets (27%).
Respondents are more optimistic when asked to consider the outlook for shipping over the next five years. Fares and freight costs will increase according to 67% and the same proportion anticipate an upturn in passenger numbers and freight volumes. The number of routes and services offered is also expected to rise, according to 35%. However, just 22% believe that funding will become more readily available and 64% think that the number of enforcement actions will increase as lenders seek to protect their positions and recover losses. Most (68%) expect fuel costs to rise.
Investment opportunities
Much of the shipping industry (58%) continues to favour Asia Pacific for investment opportunities over the next two to five years, followed, to a far lesser extent, by Europe (16%). China (17%) and India (16%) remain the most popular markets for investment.
A merger or acquisition is seen as the optimal investment opportunity (by 34%, up from 29% in 2015), while 13% favour joint ventures, alliances and pools (down from 28% in 2015).
Respondents expect consolidation to be at the centre of shipping businesses’ strategies over the next 12 months, either in the form of M&A (22%) or joint ventures (19%), while 22% expect a focus on the disposal of non-core assets. Almost three-quarters (72%) expect investment in technology to increase over the next five years, with low carbon technology expected to have the most significant impact on the industry during this period (by 33%), followed by predictive analytics (by 24%).
Regulation
Almost half (42%) believe that greater transparency in the application and enforcement of existing and proposed regulations would be the most helpful form of government support for the shipping industry, more so than fiscal incentives (32%) or investment in infrastructure (29%). Environmental regulation is seen as the regulation that has had the greatest impact on shipping over the past decade (by 49%), followed by trade and financial sanctions (by 25%).
Supply and demand imbalances are seen as the greatest challenge to the operational efficiency of the industry (by 47%), followed by a lack of qualified people (12%) and emission controls (9%). A global recession is seen as the greatest threat to the health of shipping over the next five years (by 68%). To a lesser extent, respondents are also concerned about the impact of enforcement by creditors on debt obligations (12%) and continued political and economic uncertainty in the Eurozone (8%).
Bank debt is once again expected to act as shipping’s primary source of funding over the next two years (22%), followed by shareholder support (18%) and private equity (16%).
Despite the problem of overcapacity in many sub-sectors of the industry, fuelled by new build vessels coming on to the market, 11% think that ECA funding will be the industry’s main
source of finance.
Source: Norton Rose Fulbright | Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 14 July 16
SHIPPING'S HALF YEAR REPORT - 'MUST DO BETTER' - CLARKSONS
It’s the time of year, with the school holidays and end of term approaching, that many pupils will nervously take home their school reports t ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Australian Coal Association
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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