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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 15 August 16
THE SPOT FREIGHT MARKET STRENGTHEN OVER THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose as Cape and Panamax segments ending in a positive no ...
Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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