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Tuesday, 28 June 16
CHINA'S IRON ORE IMPORTS: HOW MUCH MORE WORK FOR CAPES? - CLARKSONS
 Chinese iron ore imports account for around two thirds of global seaborne iron ore shipments, making it the key driver of Capesize employment. While the hike in Chinese iron ore imports in the year to date has supported Capesize demand, there is great uncertainty over the sustainability of the growth in 2H 2016, the distribution of trade across different routes and the overall impact on Capesize requirement.
Opportunities For Capes?
Chinese seaborne iron ore imports grew 6.6% y-o-y to 321mt in January to April 2016, supported by firm growth in long-haul trade from Brazil. This helped to absorb some of the significant oversupply of Capesize tonnage. However, there is great uncertainty regarding continued growth in China’s housing market, steel production and stockpiling, highlighting the broad downside risks to the country’s iron ore imports in 2H 2016. As such, there are a wide range of scenarios for Chinese iron ore import growth in full year 2016, the breakdown of trade flows, and the overall impact on Capesize requirement.
A Long-Haul, Long-Shot?
In a ‘high case’ scenario, Chinese seaborne iron ore import growth is projected to continue at roughly the levels recorded in the year to date, with long-haul shipments from Brazil increasing 21% in the full year, providing a significant boost to tonne-mile trade growth. In this scenario, Chinese iron ore imports from Australia and ‘Other’ exporters continue to grow at 3% and 4%, respectively. Overall, in these circumstances theoretical Capesize requirement would be boosted by an estimated 10.6m dwt (on the basis of standard vessel and voyage assumptions), equivalent to 3.4% of the start 2016 fleet.
A More Likely Scenario
However, there are broad expectations for easing Chinese construction activity and steel consumption in 2H 2016. A ‘base case’ scenario factors in these downside risks, with 0% y-o-y growth in Chinese iron ore imports projected in 2H 2016 and 3.8% in the full year. In this scenario, growth in Chinese iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil is more balanced, giving less weight to long-haul trade than in the ‘high case’. Under these circumstances, Capesize requirement would rise by around 6m dwt, equating to 1.8% of the fleet.
A Potential Turn For The Worse
In a more negative scenario, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil remain static, while exports from ‘Others’ drop by 9%. Overall, a downturn in the country’s property market and significant cuts to steel output in 2H 2016 contribute to Chinese seaborne iron ore import demand dropping 1.4% in full year 2016. This would reduce Capesize requirement by around 1.3m dwt, or 0.4% of the fleet.
So, as the ‘base case’ seems the most likely of the scenarios, given the firm start to the year, and the Capesize fleet is expected to contract by 0.4% in 2016, China could be providing some positive news for owners. However, a great deal of uncertainty remains. Clearly, trends in 2H 2016 will be watched closely, given the central role that Chinese iron ore import growth still plays for Capesize requirement.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
Tuesday, 28 June 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES ROSE ON RENEWED DEMAND FROM CHINA
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.66 percent week over week to averaging $39.65 per ton this past week, sh ...
Monday, 27 June 16
LATEST NEWS ON BIMCO'S CONTRACTS AND CLAUSES
BIMCO is currently updating several of its most widely used charter parties including SUPPLYTIME and BARECON. New developments include the Standard ...
Monday, 27 June 16
BREXIT RESULT COULD SEE UK FACING AN EXODUS OF MARITIME TALENT - FASTSTREAM
The UK’s decision to leave the EU has the potential to drive many of its maritime employees away, according to the results of a survey issued ...
Monday, 27 June 16
THE BDI UP 3.75 PERCENT ; BCI FELL 1.51% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.75 percent from las ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- The University of Queensland
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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