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Tuesday, 28 June 16
CHINA'S IRON ORE IMPORTS: HOW MUCH MORE WORK FOR CAPES? - CLARKSONS
 Chinese iron ore imports account for around two thirds of global seaborne iron ore shipments, making it the key driver of Capesize employment. While the hike in Chinese iron ore imports in the year to date has supported Capesize demand, there is great uncertainty over the sustainability of the growth in 2H 2016, the distribution of trade across different routes and the overall impact on Capesize requirement.
Opportunities For Capes?
Chinese seaborne iron ore imports grew 6.6% y-o-y to 321mt in January to April 2016, supported by firm growth in long-haul trade from Brazil. This helped to absorb some of the significant oversupply of Capesize tonnage. However, there is great uncertainty regarding continued growth in China’s housing market, steel production and stockpiling, highlighting the broad downside risks to the country’s iron ore imports in 2H 2016. As such, there are a wide range of scenarios for Chinese iron ore import growth in full year 2016, the breakdown of trade flows, and the overall impact on Capesize requirement.
A Long-Haul, Long-Shot?
In a ‘high case’ scenario, Chinese seaborne iron ore import growth is projected to continue at roughly the levels recorded in the year to date, with long-haul shipments from Brazil increasing 21% in the full year, providing a significant boost to tonne-mile trade growth. In this scenario, Chinese iron ore imports from Australia and ‘Other’ exporters continue to grow at 3% and 4%, respectively. Overall, in these circumstances theoretical Capesize requirement would be boosted by an estimated 10.6m dwt (on the basis of standard vessel and voyage assumptions), equivalent to 3.4% of the start 2016 fleet.
A More Likely Scenario
However, there are broad expectations for easing Chinese construction activity and steel consumption in 2H 2016. A ‘base case’ scenario factors in these downside risks, with 0% y-o-y growth in Chinese iron ore imports projected in 2H 2016 and 3.8% in the full year. In this scenario, growth in Chinese iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil is more balanced, giving less weight to long-haul trade than in the ‘high case’. Under these circumstances, Capesize requirement would rise by around 6m dwt, equating to 1.8% of the fleet.
A Potential Turn For The Worse
In a more negative scenario, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil remain static, while exports from ‘Others’ drop by 9%. Overall, a downturn in the country’s property market and significant cuts to steel output in 2H 2016 contribute to Chinese seaborne iron ore import demand dropping 1.4% in full year 2016. This would reduce Capesize requirement by around 1.3m dwt, or 0.4% of the fleet.
So, as the ‘base case’ seems the most likely of the scenarios, given the firm start to the year, and the Capesize fleet is expected to contract by 0.4% in 2016, China could be providing some positive news for owners. However, a great deal of uncertainty remains. Clearly, trends in 2H 2016 will be watched closely, given the central role that Chinese iron ore import growth still plays for Capesize requirement.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
Tuesday, 28 June 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES ROSE ON RENEWED DEMAND FROM CHINA
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.66 percent week over week to averaging $39.65 per ton this past week, sh ...
Monday, 27 June 16
LATEST NEWS ON BIMCO'S CONTRACTS AND CLAUSES
BIMCO is currently updating several of its most widely used charter parties including SUPPLYTIME and BARECON. New developments include the Standard ...
Monday, 27 June 16
BREXIT RESULT COULD SEE UK FACING AN EXODUS OF MARITIME TALENT - FASTSTREAM
The UK’s decision to leave the EU has the potential to drive many of its maritime employees away, according to the results of a survey issued ...
Monday, 27 June 16
THE BDI UP 3.75 PERCENT ; BCI FELL 1.51% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.75 percent from las ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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