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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Thursday, 03 March 16
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF INTEREST IN BENGALLA JOINT VENTURE FOR US$616.7 MILLION
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its 40 per cent interest in the Bengalla coal Joint Venture in Australia to New Hope Corporation ...
Wednesday, 02 March 16
RE-EVALUATION OF MINING LICENSES CLEAN AND CLEAR STATUS IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com: In connection with the transfer of mining authority from Regents/Mayors to Governors1 and from Regents/Mayors and Governors to t ...
Wednesday, 02 March 16
OIL MY GOD.....!!!!
OIL my GOD….!!!!
The oil price “crash” that started in 2014 was caused by a glut of practically unwanted oil. Producers had be ...
Tuesday, 01 March 16
CS 42 (4200 GAR) COAL INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 27.11 A TON ON 26 FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.77 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% ...
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Showing 2541 to 2545 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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