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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Thursday, 07 April 16
BIMCO AND GIIGNL PUBLISH A GROUNDBREAKING VOYAGE CHARTER PARTY FOR LNG TRADE
BIMCO and the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) have today jointly issued the first definitive voyage charter party & ...
Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefor ...
Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side c ...
Monday, 04 April 16
THE LOADING, AND SUBSEQUENT DISCHARGE, OF UNSAFE NICKEL ORE - ALL TIME TO 'COUNT' - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent, published, London arbitration award the English tribunal has held that all time lost as a result of loading, ...
Monday, 04 April 16
INDONESIA CS57 COAL INDEX SLIDES SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.07 percent week over week to averaging $38.88 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
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Showing 2491 to 2495 news of total 6871 |
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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