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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Thursday, 14 April 16
AUSTRALIAN MINING SERVICES SECTOR SQUEEZED BY MINERS' COST CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says mining services companies' revenues and margins will remain under pressure as miners continue to focus on reducing costs ami ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
DRY BULKERS' PRICES COULD BE HEADING UPWARDS AS BUYERS' APPETITE INCREASES - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Investment sentiment is beginning to trend upwards in the market for second hand dry bulk carriers. According to the latest weekly report from ship ...
Wednesday, 13 April 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 16 PER CENT IN 2016; THE LARGEST ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DECLINE SINCE 1958 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in March 2016 was 52 million short tons (MMst), a 2 MMst (4%) decrease from the previous month and 29 MMst ...
Tuesday, 12 April 16
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE INCREASES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price Increases For Second Straight Month in April 2016.
The Director General of Mine ...
Tuesday, 12 April 16
NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT COAL PRICE DECLINES IN THE FUTURE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch does not expect further significant coal price declines because producers sector-wide are suffering losses while China and Indo ...
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Showing 2476 to 2480 news of total 6871 |
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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