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Monday, 09 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS STEADY PROGRESS MOVING FORWARD ON THE BACK OF GROWING TRADE VOLUMES - BIMCO
 In its latest short-term analysis of the shipping markets, BIMCO reiterated its optimism on the prospects of the dry bulk market moving forward. According to BIMCO, transported volumes are expected to grow slowly – as they seasonally do – from the first quarter into the second. This ought to underpin the freight market.
“Notably, we expect a new record volume of combined grain and soybean exports this year from Argentina and Brazil. We do not anticipate a massive rise in freight rates for handysize, supramax and panamaxes on the back of this, as ships are already waiting around the main loading areas. Nevertheless, it should give a boost in confidence, a confidence that Moore Stephens in March assessed to be at a record low”, said BIMCO’s report.
Another positive indication of China not being as vulnerable as some may believe, which is supporting the soft landing trajectory, is the improving domestic steel prices, seen since mid-February. In the international markets, spot iron ore prices have also rebounded from USD 41 per MT at the beginning of 2016 to see USD 56 per MT in mid-April. Very different from the peaks of the past, but a positive indicator in the midst of all this surrounding uncertainty.
“We are still worried about the sustainability of freight rates in the years to come. Our main worry is that demolition activity will slow down as the BDI improves. If shipowners slow demolition of ships considerably, the fleet will keep growing. This will widen the fundamental imbalance further because we forecast the demand side to grow slowly in the coming years. In order to reverse several years of adding capacity in excess of demand growth, we need to develop a multi-year trend of negative fleet growth. BIMCO assess the current utilisation rate of the dry bulk fleet at the low end of the 70s”, said the report.
Looking further ahead, BIMCO noted that “coal imports into India may change. If the retained political vision of making India self-sufficient in thermal coal becomes reality. Surely the jury is still out on that. In November 2013 the then Indian Power Minister Goyal was “very confident”, when saying India may stop thermal coal imports in two to three years, as domestic production would increase. Mr. Goyal, now being India’s Energy Minister repeated the exactly the same words in April 2016. “We want to completely stop its import over the next two to three years”. India imported 171 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2015, slightly down from 176 million tonnes in 2014. SSY expects India to import 170 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2016”, it noted.
Supply
Meanwhile, “despite a record high volume of demolished dry bulk shipping capacity in the first three months of 2016, the total dry bulk fleet still grew. 16.7 million DWT of new capacity entered the fleet while 14 million DWT was sold for scrap. All in line with BIMCO’s forecast.
Not all of the dry bulk sub-segments saw an increase in fleet size. The capesize fleet, for instance, which has doubled over the past 6½ years, reduced in number (7 ships less) as well as capacity (-0.2%) in Q1-2016. For the full year, BIMCO holds unchanged expectations for deliveries and demolitions, which means we expect the fleet to grow by 1.1% or 10 million DWT in 2016. What has changed though from our January report is the slippage rate of deliveries, now at 50% up from 40%. Owners and investors are working hard to delay the delivery of new ships into a miserable freight market”, said the report.
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand, “as deliveries offer traces of past optimism, most interestingly the appetite for signing new contracts for dry bulk ships at the world’s shipyards has ceased. Until the middle of March, only four new contracts had been signed, three at Japanese shipyards and one in China. During March and April, the long anticipated orders for 30 VLOCs with a capacity of 400,000 DWT each are now confirmed. Lifelong time charter contracts (27-years) appears to have been awarded to all of them already. This is the latest development that ties China and Vale closer to each other again, after their fallout following the disputes over the original batch of valemax VLOCs which were not allowed to call at Chinese ports for several years”.
He added that “without doubt this is bad news for international owners and operators. Each VLOC can carry an estimated 1.6m tons of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Baoshan, China per annum. This new batch of VLOCs, will remove 48 million tons of iron ore from the “open market”. As the current fleet of 34 VLOCs (2011-2015) already carries a total of 54.4m tons of cargo, the best front-haul leg in dry bulk shipping is crippled even further by this industrialisation of trade. In 2015, Brazil exported 191.6 million tons of iron ore to China; the existing and new valemax between them will be able to carry over half Brazil’s current annual iron ore exports. The 30 new VLOCs are due for delivery in 2018-2019”.
Demand
In terms of demand, BIMCO said that “on 10 February 2016, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) hit 290. At that point, a bulk carrier regardless of its size, age and fuel-efficient qualities earned a time charter average of USD 2,417-2,776 per day. Whereas the three smaller segments have seen higher earnings since then, Capesize earnings lost ground up until the end of March. By mid-April, the gap closed and capesizes are back on par with the pack. Despite the fact that earnings have doubled in those two months, they remain below OPEX levels for the largest part of the fleet. Despite the many attempts by steel mills around the world to fend off Chinese steel from their home market, China’s steel export volumes did not fall significantly in January and February. Export dropped by just 1.6% to 17.85 million tonnes. New data for March showed exports of 10 million tonnes. In 2015, China flooded the world market as 112 million tons were exported, bringing down scrap steel prices in the wake of it.”
It added that “global crude steel production for January and February combined was 5.6% lower than in the same period of 2015, according to Worldsteel. Crude steel production in China was down 6.5% at the same time. The three key items to watch out for in 2016 are Chinese imports of coal and iron ore, as well as how much dry bulk tonnage is going to be demolished. Nothing else really matters to an extent that can either improve or damage the fundamentals of the dry bulk shipping market. In the midst of doom, gloom and uncertainty for shipbuilding, China’s combined imports of the two key commodities in the first two months fared better than we thought. The trouble is, however, that it did not bring decisive support to the freight market. Chinese iron ore imports grew by 6.4% to 155.8 million tonnes over the first two months versus this time a year ago. While coal imports to China fell by 10% to 28.8 million tonnes over the same period. New data for March … all positive. Chinese iron ore imports were 85.8 million tonnes, while coal imports rose to 19.7 million tonnes. The strong coal imports over March all but levelled out the drop in January and February. Q1 coal import growth was down by 1.2% year on year”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 20 May 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDED 14 MAY TOTALED 11.4 MMST; UP 3.8% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.4 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE CARGOES PUSHED UP THE FREIGHT RATES FOR CAPE THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a big jump in the freight rates for Cape size this week, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. All of the Australian iron ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
DISPUTE OVER VAT ON COAL DRAGS ON, CAUSING DOUBLE-BLOW TO MINERS - JP
The dispute over the value-added tax ( VAT ) mechanism between coal miners operating under third-generation contracts and the Finance Ministry&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
DRY BULK OUTLOOK REMAINS GLOOMY SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE, AS SHIPPING NEEDS TO RETHINK BUSINESS MODEL - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Our Shipping Market Review – May 2016 is devoted to the fourth industrial revolution. To understand the truly disruptive nature of the fourth ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started ...
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Showing 2426 to 2430 news of total 6871 |
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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