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Thursday, 05 May 16
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, AS HOLIDAYS AROUND THE WORLD HURT DEMAND - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
PanamaxThe dry bulk market’s recent rally has been put on a temporary hold, as various holidays around the world have put a stop in it. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Fearnleys said that as a result of various holidays around the world, “the last week’s positive trend in the Cape market came to an end. West Australia rates are again sub USD 4 and time charter rates are approaching USD 5000 levels. Activity in the Atlantic is cooling off as well, and period activity is consequently scarce”.

In the Panamax market, Fearnleys said that ‘with bank holidays beginning week, Golden Week in Japan and upcoming holidays in Europe the mrkt has been very quiet this week. Rates continue to slide and the pressure for North Atlantic is no longer there. The recent week’s main driver; grains ex ECSA is coming off. We see fewer stems for May and what is left is being swallowed by the ballasters, most recently at USD 7k+190kGBB. We do not see any immediate signs for recovery either and believe this sliding tendency will continue short term. In the Eastern hemisphere we see the same tendency with rates coming off. Aussie rv being fixed in the high 4k for index type while the bigger kmax can fetch mid 5k. Short periods are being fixed at 5,750 while 1 year at 5k”, it noted.

Finally, “the Supra market in the East, as here in the Atlantic, is affected by the upcoming long weekend. Charterers in general have been trying to use the lack of action to draw the numbers down, but largely without success. The most lively market has still been the Continent which has continued to draw tonnage out of the Mediterranean. Also the Handy’s continue to see good numbers with East Med delivery for loading off the Continent back to the East Med at very healthy numbers considering this is a full round trip. On the period front, an Ultra has concluded short period off West Africa, with WW redelivery at upper USD 9000’s which can be considered healthy”, said Fearnleys.

NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY
Meanwhile, there was very little shipyard activity this week as well. According to Fearnleys, “two VLGCs ordered by Japanese compatriot Nissen Kaiun for construction at MHI. Although no price reported a VLGC is today estimated at low-mid 70s”.

Meanwhile, as Fearnleys noted “the spot activity in the VLGC market has slowed down quite a bit over the last few days, Golden Week in Japan as well as UK and Singaporean holidays on Monday are partly to blame for the sluggish freight market. The main reason, however, are the continued meagre spreads between FOB and CFR prices that at the time of writing only allow for spot rates well below recent (low) market fixtures.

We have counted less than a handful sub-fixtures in the VLGC market since our latest weekly, and the rates have been rather stable returning some USD 20/21,000 per day on modern vessels. The Baltic VLGC index has been quite uninspiring lately, just when the market thought the index was on its way up to more sustainable numbers, the curve turned down and the latest posting is similar to the index level 2 weeks ago. The spot fleet balance does not look bad ahead, but it is not likely that the owners will get the upper hand over the next few weeks unless FOB prices drop and/or CFR prices go up. At the moment owners are willing to repeat the numbers they have been quoting lately, but unfortunately the charterers can only consider discounts to those numbers for the time being.

The panellists for the Baltic Forward Assessment carry on painting a very bleak freight picture over the summer, the VLGC owners probably characterize the forecast as an insult and an annoyance”, said Fearnleys.

Finally, in the demolition market, shipbroker Athenian Shipbrokers said that “with the monsoon season fast approaching and governmental budgets looming, both Bangladeshi and Pakistani buyers entered the market with renewed appetite to buy, concentrating on promptly available units. Prices on offer consequently rose on both markets with several deals being reported. Indian buyers at the shorefront appeared sceptical following a drop in local steel prices; nonetheless several deals were also reported as concluded at levels that were not in line with the sentiment at shore. In the Far East, prices continued to improve, however the gap between what Chinese breakers can offer and the sub-continent remained significant”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News


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