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Wednesday, 04 May 16
IS THE DRY BULK MARKET OUT OF THE WOODS YET, OR NOT? - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
PanamaxThings are beginning to brighten up in the beleaguered dry bulk market, which is riding on a multi-week rally to find itself around the “psychological” level of 700 points (Baltic Dry Index), which is a six-month high. However, analysts and shipbrokers alike are keeping both feet on the ground, as things are still more than fragile and could turn around in a heartbeat. According to a recent report from shipbroker Intermodal, “the commodities markets have been moving like crazy during this time, with the bear rally having pushed prices for iron ore to more than 15-month highs (the recent peak reached $70 a tonne, marking it for now the best price performing commodity for 2016”.

Intermodal noted that “all this market boost seems to be the child born from the combination of several market effects mainly resonating from within China. The increased availability of credit from the huge amount of cash injected by Chinese policymakers into its banking system earlier this year, the restocking undertaken ahead of the summer construction period, tighter supplies recently noted after a string of closures last year, supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil and finally a more bullish appetite for steel in China following an improvement in steel-intensive construction and infrastructure projects and a better than expected GDP figure for the first quarter of 2016. This has been enough to feed speculation from China and drive a more then 80% increase in price from its low back in December of 2015”

According to George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with Intermodal, “all this has in turn has fed a stimulus to the iron ore futures contract and has been thoroughly noted in the advancements in seaborne trade shipments. Yet as good as all this may sound, alarm bells have been ringing. The recent rally is still being held on a very shaky foundation, while recent public comments from most of the major iron ore producers have been mentioning the expectation of a significant inflow of cheaply sourced supplies which are due to come online this year. Further to this and with the price of iron ore having now reached this new peak, mines based within China (which had been driven out of market from the previous drop in prices) will be able to come online even partially, as such bringing a temporary halt in seaborne imports. Furthermore, it is important to also note that it is still too early to tell the long-term viability of the recent stimulus package brought on by the policymakers and how well it will be a steady support on the market and provide real support for a true market recovery”.

Lazaridis added that “nevertheless and after having mentioned all the cautions that needed to be addressed, the news are fairly positive. From the perspective of the shipping industry it is the boost in demand that plays the more significant role, with the recent rally in prices, although reflecting the market improvement in demand, leaving risks down the line if these prices were to prevail for too long. Cheaply sourced supplies could further boost demand while allowing to keep the competitive edge on supplies sourced from far locations such as Australia and Brazil. Therefore the focus is on the consumption boost from within China, which if it lasts and keeps on course, could be the sign of a true market recovery in sight”.

He concluded his analysis by noting that “taking away from the recent rise in demand the percentage that is due to the high seasonal restocking does make for a more moderate rise while it leaves a sense of an upcoming drop once the focus shifts from restocking to destocking. For the moment however, things look positive and given the Herculean efforts made on the side of ship owners to keep the supply of Capes capped, we might be set for an earlier recovery then what one would have thought of back in January. What is important is that we don’t lose our sight off the ball, and keep efforts to a max in order to bring about this change in markets sooner rather than later”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News


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