We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 27 April 16
THE OCEAN SHIPPING EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC VOLATILITY IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Shipping’s new (ab)normal
The global economy and ocean shipping experienced dramatic volatility in the beginning of 2016 and as the global economy undergoes structural changes, so does the derived ocean shipping activity, principally epitomized by the following abnormal trends:
(i) Constrained financing,
(ii) Deflation in asset prices, and
(iii) Shift in demand growth.
Constrained financing
First, ship financing in all of its forms is very restricted and will remain so in the years to come. There has been just one shipping IPO this year raising a mere $7m! Following the 2008 financial crisis, the excessively detailed banking legislation enacted, has forced bankers to spend more time filling out forms for regulators rather than understanding better their clients and the industry.
Despite monetary expansion, banks are not lending the excess supply of money but rather hoarding it. If you think this scarcity of financing is temporary and that the implications of Basel III have already been felt, you are simply wrong. In 2018 we also anticipate the IFRS 9 to take effect contributing to earlier recognition of credit losses, making it more expensive and difficult for banks to lend. So, via upcoming regulations, deleveraging will intensify both in the west and in emerging markets. Only the best buyers will receive money, good luck to smaller companies!
Deflation in asset prices
Second, the cost of creating new shipping assets, i.e., shipbuilding prices, are low, will get lower and will remain low for some time. Shipping deflation is due to vast manufacturing overcapacity from the previous cycle and technological change. We will experience newbuilding prices lower than the 2012 ones which at the time represented multi-year lows.
The Japanese shipbuilding prices, the premium in the sector, are correcting thanks also to the Yen now standing at 111 a dollar vs. 76 in 2012, while Chinese Builders, the floor of shipbuilding values, offer aggressive pricing assisted by the Yuan devaluations.
In S. Korea, we expect consolidation and further correction of prices following the recent elections. The abovementioned lack of financing will keep newbuilding appetite subdued for long. This will further drive prices down. And since newbuilding prices are in a sense an upper bound for second-hand prices in normal freight conditions, asset prices will stay deflated endangering the plans of opportunistic asset players.
Shift in demand growth
Third, there is a shift in growth as we transition from an industrial into a services and consumer economy. GDP growth per se, especially if anemic as it stands today, will not suffice to generate strong seaborne demand. However, with limited financing we can’t anticipate anything exciting on the physical side. The historical correlations and >1 multipliers between GDP and seaborne trade documented over several decades have been broken the last years and specifically last year seaborne trade growth was outnumbered by GDP growth. There are fears that outsourcing and globalization are reaching their limits and there are early signs of near sourcing and nationalization. Fighting pollution will remain a long-term driver, with its implications on coal, oil and regulations. Gas is coming catalyzed by shale developments!
We have indeed a new shipping abnormal -with constrained financing, assets deflation and shift in demand- and it is likely to stay with us for long. On the rosy side, the first two trends, will alleviate the two major causes of the ongoing crisis: exogenous money and excessive yard capacity.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 03 May 16
HOW TO AVOID THE LATEST CARGO FRAUDS - BIMCO
BIMCO receives regular reports from members around the world about cargo fraud. This week alone we have had two reports of cargoes being fixed (or ...
Monday, 02 May 16
INDIA'S GANGAVARAM PORT SETS ALL INDIA RECORD FOR NON-COKING COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, the deepest and the most modern port in India, has created yet another historical milestone record by discharging 15 ...
Monday, 02 May 16
CS (I) 5000 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSES 0.11% HIGHER, 5700 GAR COAL RISES 0.07% W/W
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.78 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 02 May 16
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Saturday, 30 April 16
40 YEARS OF HANDLING COAL AT THE BTW IN WILHELMSHAVEN UNDER THE RHENUS FLAG
Press Release: The first bulk carrier with coal on board docked at the Bulk Terminal Wilhelmshaven (BTW), which is operated by Rhenus Midgar ...
|
|
|
Showing 2451 to 2455 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
|
| |
| |
|
