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Monday, 25 April 16
CHINESE STEEL PRICE SURGE NOT SUSTAINABLE - FITCH
 The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elevated speculation in the steel futures market, says Fitch Ratings. Fitch expects supply of steel to increase as rising prices lead to capacity resumption, but without a sustainable rise in demand. This will put significant pressure on steel prices in the near term.
According to Fitch, the Chinese steel product prices have increased over 60% year to date. For instance, prices for hot-rolled steel - one of the most widely traded products - increased to CNY3,229 per tonne from CNY1,994 per tonne at the beginning of 2016. Fitch believes the price surge is mostly driven by a seasonal pick-up in fixed-asset investment activity from a low base in the first two months of 2016. This is exacerbated by increased speculation in the steel futures market, driven by liquidity in the financial system.
On the demand side, Fitch said, fixed-asset investment was up 10.7% yoy in 1Q16. Of this, infrastructure was up 19.6% and property 6.2%. Infrastructure investment growth was in line with Fitch's expectations and the usual spurt following the Chinese New Year holidays. However, the pick-up in property investment came earlier than expected. Fitch did not anticipate an increase until 2H16, from a low base in the previous year. Overall, Fitch does not foresee a strong increase in steel demand during 2016 and expects overall fixed-asset investment growth to remain at around 10%, a similar level to 2015.
On the supply side, Fitch commented that, average daily crude steel production was lower in January and February 2016, at around 2.02 million tonnes, compared to 2.21 million tonnes in 2015. Production fell significantly at the end of 2015 due to low steel prices. The total capacity suspended (capacity that is partially in operation or mostly non-operating) in 2015 amounted to around 60 million tonnes, of which only an estimated 15 million tonnes to 17 million tonnes was permanently shut-down and eliminated from the market. With prices now surging, many of the suspended plants have resumed production. This was partially reflected in March 2016 production figures, where daily crude steel production rose to 2.28 million tonnes, up 12.9% compared to January and February 2016.
Fitch expects production to increase further in April, as the suspended furnaces are fired up. This, together with weak demand growth for steel in 2016, is likely to soon result in declining steel prices.
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Monday, 09 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP Q3 14 DELIVERIES LOST 4.61% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.62 per mt a ...
Sunday, 08 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR PANAMXES TO REMAIN VOLATILE; NO IMPROVEMENTS SEEN OVER THE WEEK
COALspot.com: Cape index increase pushes BDI index to 989 points week on week. The BDI firmed up by 5.88 pct and closed at 989 points week ended 6 ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
EVERYTHING CHANGES, AND NOTHING ABIDES - HERACLITUS
A couple of weeks ago, and while everyone was focusing on the struggling freight market, Russia and China made history by signing a three-decade lo ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
FIRST BITE AT ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE - BIMCO
In recent years a number of countries have introduced anti-corruption legislation which, unfortunately, fails to recognise the practical implicatio ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
U.S. MONTHLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN MAY 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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