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Monday, 25 April 16
CHINESE STEEL PRICE SURGE NOT SUSTAINABLE - FITCH
 The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elevated speculation in the steel futures market, says Fitch Ratings. Fitch expects supply of steel to increase as rising prices lead to capacity resumption, but without a sustainable rise in demand. This will put significant pressure on steel prices in the near term.
According to Fitch, the Chinese steel product prices have increased over 60% year to date. For instance, prices for hot-rolled steel - one of the most widely traded products - increased to CNY3,229 per tonne from CNY1,994 per tonne at the beginning of 2016. Fitch believes the price surge is mostly driven by a seasonal pick-up in fixed-asset investment activity from a low base in the first two months of 2016. This is exacerbated by increased speculation in the steel futures market, driven by liquidity in the financial system.
On the demand side, Fitch said, fixed-asset investment was up 10.7% yoy in 1Q16. Of this, infrastructure was up 19.6% and property 6.2%. Infrastructure investment growth was in line with Fitch's expectations and the usual spurt following the Chinese New Year holidays. However, the pick-up in property investment came earlier than expected. Fitch did not anticipate an increase until 2H16, from a low base in the previous year. Overall, Fitch does not foresee a strong increase in steel demand during 2016 and expects overall fixed-asset investment growth to remain at around 10%, a similar level to 2015.
On the supply side, Fitch commented that, average daily crude steel production was lower in January and February 2016, at around 2.02 million tonnes, compared to 2.21 million tonnes in 2015. Production fell significantly at the end of 2015 due to low steel prices. The total capacity suspended (capacity that is partially in operation or mostly non-operating) in 2015 amounted to around 60 million tonnes, of which only an estimated 15 million tonnes to 17 million tonnes was permanently shut-down and eliminated from the market. With prices now surging, many of the suspended plants have resumed production. This was partially reflected in March 2016 production figures, where daily crude steel production rose to 2.28 million tonnes, up 12.9% compared to January and February 2016.
Fitch expects production to increase further in April, as the suspended furnaces are fired up. This, together with weak demand growth for steel in 2016, is likely to soon result in declining steel prices.
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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