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Monday, 25 April 16
CHINESE STEEL PRICE SURGE NOT SUSTAINABLE - FITCH
 The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elevated speculation in the steel futures market, says Fitch Ratings. Fitch expects supply of steel to increase as rising prices lead to capacity resumption, but without a sustainable rise in demand. This will put significant pressure on steel prices in the near term.
According to Fitch, the Chinese steel product prices have increased over 60% year to date. For instance, prices for hot-rolled steel - one of the most widely traded products - increased to CNY3,229 per tonne from CNY1,994 per tonne at the beginning of 2016. Fitch believes the price surge is mostly driven by a seasonal pick-up in fixed-asset investment activity from a low base in the first two months of 2016. This is exacerbated by increased speculation in the steel futures market, driven by liquidity in the financial system.
On the demand side, Fitch said, fixed-asset investment was up 10.7% yoy in 1Q16. Of this, infrastructure was up 19.6% and property 6.2%. Infrastructure investment growth was in line with Fitch's expectations and the usual spurt following the Chinese New Year holidays. However, the pick-up in property investment came earlier than expected. Fitch did not anticipate an increase until 2H16, from a low base in the previous year. Overall, Fitch does not foresee a strong increase in steel demand during 2016 and expects overall fixed-asset investment growth to remain at around 10%, a similar level to 2015.
On the supply side, Fitch commented that, average daily crude steel production was lower in January and February 2016, at around 2.02 million tonnes, compared to 2.21 million tonnes in 2015. Production fell significantly at the end of 2015 due to low steel prices. The total capacity suspended (capacity that is partially in operation or mostly non-operating) in 2015 amounted to around 60 million tonnes, of which only an estimated 15 million tonnes to 17 million tonnes was permanently shut-down and eliminated from the market. With prices now surging, many of the suspended plants have resumed production. This was partially reflected in March 2016 production figures, where daily crude steel production rose to 2.28 million tonnes, up 12.9% compared to January and February 2016.
Fitch expects production to increase further in April, as the suspended furnaces are fired up. This, together with weak demand growth for steel in 2016, is likely to soon result in declining steel prices.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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