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Wednesday, 13 April 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 16 PER CENT IN 2016; THE LARGEST ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DECLINE SINCE 1958 - EIA
EIAEIA estimates that U.S. coal production in March 2016 was 52 million short tons (MMst), a 2 MMst (4%) decrease from the previous month and 29 MMst (36%) lower than in March 2015.

According to EIA’s Short-Term Energy And Summer Fuels Outlook, Forecast coal production is expected to decrease by 143 MMst (16%) in 2016, which would be the largest annual percentage decline since 1958. In 2016, forecast Appalachian and Western region production declines by 14% and 20%, respectively, and Interior region production falls by 6%. In 2017, total coal production is expected to increase by 26 MMst (3%).

Coal Consumption
EIA’s Short-Term Energy And Summer Fuels Outlook noted, Coal consumption in the electric power sector, which accounts for more than 90% of total U.S. coal consumption, is forecast to decline by 50 MMst (7%) in 2016 as a result of mild winter weather and competition with natural gas. Coal consumption in the electric power sector is forecast to increase by 16 MMst (2%) in 2017 primarily because of rising natural gas prices. Retirements of coal-fired power plants reduce coal-fired generation capacity in the forecast period. The retirements are the result of increased competition with natural gas generation and the industry response to the implementation of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS).
 
US coal summary 12 April 2016


Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports, says EIA. Lower mining costs, cheaper transportation costs, and favorable exchange rates are expected to continue to provide an advantage to mines in other major coal-exporting countries compared with U.S. producers over the next few years.

Coal exports in January 2016 were 4 MMst, down 9% from December 2015 and 44% lower than the amount exported in January 2015. EIA forecasts U.S. coal exports to decline by 15 MMst (21%) in 2016 and by 2 MMst (3%) in 2017.

Atlantic and Gulf Coast power generators are forecast to maintain their current levels of coal imports, which are primarily from Latin America. Imports are projected to total about 11 MMst in 2016 and 2017.

Coal Prices
EIA estimates the delivered coal price in U.S averaged $2.23/MMBtu in 2015. Forecast prices are $2.16/MMBtu in 2016 and $2.19/MMBtu in 2017.


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