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Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
 It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefore, painfully for many owners, we have replied to the question how deep this crisis is. It can't go much deeper. The question now is how long this crisis will be and when should owners expect the bulk carriers to become profitable again and their assets to regain their value (or part thereof).
The answer to that question is 'as soon as the demand for seaborne trade will consistently outpace the supply of vessels'. According to IMF data in 2015, global economic activity remained subdued. Growth in emerging market and developing economies (accounting for over 70 percent of global growth, and the main drivers of dry bulk shipping) declined for the fifth consecutive year, while a modest recovery continued in advanced economies. On top of that, the fleet has grown too much over the last decade and we need to see the fleet contract in order to meet the ailing demand growth.
Looking at some data on the ship supply side, we can see that year-to-date 17.82mil tons of dwt have been delivered against 14.48mil tons of deadweight that have sent for demolition.
In other words there have been fifty more deliveries than demolitions, these are mainly in the Handysize and Supramax/Ultramax segments. On paper, the fleet is still growing and the weak demand is bringing the utilization rate lower and lower. In reality, although this is temporary, the fleet has contracted since many of the new deliveries haven't started trading yet and a number of a few hundreds of ships have been laid up.
Another fact that we derive from the fleet data is how many vessels that were originally contracted for delivery in 2015 have actually been delivered and how many contracted for 2016 have been postponed to be delivered in 2017 and 2018.
In January 2015 the orderbook stood at 1000 bulk carriers for delivery during 2015 whilst 617 ships have been actually delivered; an almost 40percent rate of slippage. That was obviously not enough to balance the market since the fleet grew by 2.3percent whereas the seaborne trade growth was negative.
In January 2016, the orderbook for 2016 stood also at about 1000 vessels (including a number of vessels postponed from 2015) whilst today it's about 700 vessels with only 211 deliveries so far; the difference being vessels pushed back in 2017 or 2018 where the respective orderbooks have increased accordingly, about 300 vessels.
Looking forward, according to IMF, growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to increase from 4 percent in 2015 — the lowest since the 2008–09 financial crisis—to 4.3 and 4.7 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. This means that demand will pick up over the next two years and if the supply keeps on its rationalization consistently, the answer to the “how long?” question could well be “earlier than the consensus”.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 April 16
PANAMAX RATES ARE FIRMING IN BOTH HEMISHEPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
With a great volume our of west Australia, rates were finally moving to upper 3's. and stabilizing towards the middle of the week in ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
BIMCO AND GIIGNL PUBLISH A GROUNDBREAKING VOYAGE CHARTER PARTY FOR LNG TRADE
BIMCO and the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) have today jointly issued the first definitive voyage charter party & ...
Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side c ...
Monday, 04 April 16
THE LOADING, AND SUBSEQUENT DISCHARGE, OF UNSAFE NICKEL ORE - ALL TIME TO 'COUNT' - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent, published, London arbitration award the English tribunal has held that all time lost as a result of loading, ...
Monday, 04 April 16
INDONESIA CS57 COAL INDEX SLIDES SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.07 percent week over week to averaging $38.88 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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