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Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
 It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefore, painfully for many owners, we have replied to the question how deep this crisis is. It can't go much deeper. The question now is how long this crisis will be and when should owners expect the bulk carriers to become profitable again and their assets to regain their value (or part thereof).
The answer to that question is 'as soon as the demand for seaborne trade will consistently outpace the supply of vessels'. According to IMF data in 2015, global economic activity remained subdued. Growth in emerging market and developing economies (accounting for over 70 percent of global growth, and the main drivers of dry bulk shipping) declined for the fifth consecutive year, while a modest recovery continued in advanced economies. On top of that, the fleet has grown too much over the last decade and we need to see the fleet contract in order to meet the ailing demand growth.
Looking at some data on the ship supply side, we can see that year-to-date 17.82mil tons of dwt have been delivered against 14.48mil tons of deadweight that have sent for demolition.
In other words there have been fifty more deliveries than demolitions, these are mainly in the Handysize and Supramax/Ultramax segments. On paper, the fleet is still growing and the weak demand is bringing the utilization rate lower and lower. In reality, although this is temporary, the fleet has contracted since many of the new deliveries haven't started trading yet and a number of a few hundreds of ships have been laid up.
Another fact that we derive from the fleet data is how many vessels that were originally contracted for delivery in 2015 have actually been delivered and how many contracted for 2016 have been postponed to be delivered in 2017 and 2018.
In January 2015 the orderbook stood at 1000 bulk carriers for delivery during 2015 whilst 617 ships have been actually delivered; an almost 40percent rate of slippage. That was obviously not enough to balance the market since the fleet grew by 2.3percent whereas the seaborne trade growth was negative.
In January 2016, the orderbook for 2016 stood also at about 1000 vessels (including a number of vessels postponed from 2015) whilst today it's about 700 vessels with only 211 deliveries so far; the difference being vessels pushed back in 2017 or 2018 where the respective orderbooks have increased accordingly, about 300 vessels.
Looking forward, according to IMF, growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to increase from 4 percent in 2015 — the lowest since the 2008–09 financial crisis—to 4.3 and 4.7 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. This means that demand will pick up over the next two years and if the supply keeps on its rationalization consistently, the answer to the “how long?” question could well be “earlier than the consensus”.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 April 16
PANAMAX RATES ARE FIRMING IN BOTH HEMISHEPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
With a great volume our of west Australia, rates were finally moving to upper 3's. and stabilizing towards the middle of the week in ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
BIMCO AND GIIGNL PUBLISH A GROUNDBREAKING VOYAGE CHARTER PARTY FOR LNG TRADE
BIMCO and the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) have today jointly issued the first definitive voyage charter party & ...
Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side c ...
Monday, 04 April 16
THE LOADING, AND SUBSEQUENT DISCHARGE, OF UNSAFE NICKEL ORE - ALL TIME TO 'COUNT' - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent, published, London arbitration award the English tribunal has held that all time lost as a result of loading, ...
Monday, 04 April 16
INDONESIA CS57 COAL INDEX SLIDES SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.07 percent week over week to averaging $38.88 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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