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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 28 March 16
THE SUPRAMAX INDEX WAS UP TWENTY-FOUR POINTS TO 473 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 25 March 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET WILL GROW BY 1.3% DURING 2016 - BIMCO | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market will keep on suffering, at least until the start of 2017 and possibly well after that, should the current balance of supply and ...
Friday, 25 March 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 9.1% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
PERSISTENT OVERCAPACITY TO PROLONG CHINA'S COAL SECTOR DOWNTURN - FITCH
China's coal sector is likely to remain under pressure in the short to medium term as structural weaknesses in demand and overcapacity persist, ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
NEWBUILDINGS' PRICES HAVE STARTED TO COME DOWN - ALLIED | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuildings’ prices have started to come down, as demand has remained subdued for quite some time now. In its latest weekly report, shipbrok ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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