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Friday, 04 March 16
GLOBAL ECONOMY'S JITTERS ARE SLOWING DOWN SHIPPING EVEN FURTHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
PanamaxThe global economy’s shaky condition to say the least is now hampering growth and as a result demand for shipping is slowing down, something will be evidenced in the world trade’s growth over the course of the year. As things stand at the moment, “global growth continues to be lagging in performance, with the major driving economies both from the Developed market and Emerging markets spectrum still too weak to drive any real change to the downturn currently experienced world-wide. Taking into consideration recent analysis circulated, these conditions have been in stark contrast to what many had been hoping to see back in early 2015, at a time when most of us had been hoping for tailwinds ushered by the drastic drop in oil prices to help redistribute the savings brought about to consumers globally and drive in turn for much higher global growth”, said Allied Shipbroking in its latest report.

According to Allied’s George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, who attempted to provide an answer in a nutshell, “China and the adverse effects of a broader credit cycle deterioration. The slowdown in China has both directly and indirectly had considerable adverse effects on the global economy, substantially weakening trade demand for dry bulk commodities as well as all for finished goods. At the same time much of the previously strong growth pumped in by the much herald BRICS economies has been faltered by the fact that majority of these have been net commodity exporters feeding their growth models from the earnings brought in from commodities ranging from oil to iron ore and coal. As such the weight has been effectively thrown onto the main developed markets to take up the role of driving the next economic growth wave though with minimal success as these markets are still tackling great stresses in their credit markets, while the political and economic unrest most of them face shatters consumer confidence. As such the overall net effect has been negligible, with only a hand full of economies managing to show off an accelerated growth performance thanks to the savings from the lower oil prices noted since late 2014”, he noted.

Lazaridis added that “on the wake of all this we have now started to see China make announcements reflecting the magnitude of the problems that have been created over the past year. The Chinese government has now estimated that it will lay off 1.8 million workers in its coal and steel sectors (representing about 15 percent of the said workforce). At the same time its central bank has stepped up its efforts to cushion the said economic slowdown by further cutting the reserve ratio the nation’s lenders must hold by 0.5 percentage points effective from March 1st. This has been in hope of further credit being injected (estimated to be around US$ 105 billion in value) into its economy and in turn to its consumers in order to help drive its own internal economic “motor”, he said.

“In line with this, we have also seen a string of similar stimulus measures being taken by other major economies, though little as of yet has been reflected in terms of actual reported growth. The main issues that need to be resolved are still relatively untouched, with labour markets in most of the Developed and Emerging markets still in need of further “tightening” (especially to counter fears of some markets moving into deflation), while access to credit and opening of further investment needs to be better targeted in order to provide stronger “bang” in economic growth for each “buck” invested”, Allied’s analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News


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