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Wednesday, 17 February 16
THE OWNERS FACING HISTORICAL LOW DRY BULK RATES; COAL IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL POINTING TO A STRONG TREND OF DECLINING CONSUMPTION
 The sharp fall in dry bulk rates that has been taking place since the end of last year and has left owners facing historical low rates for a substantial period of time, has now everyone wondering; how long can it last and what are those developments that could expedite the recovery.
According to our data for vessels above 20,000dwt, 2016 deliveries amount to 887 vessels, a scary number indeed even if one takes into account expected slippage. On the balancing side is of course demolition activity. A little less than 400 vessels were sent for scrap last year, while in the first six weeks of 2016 alone we count 83 demo sales. If scrapping activity for the rest of the year continues at this pace, demolition activity this year will easily top 2015.
Every single market participant is now anxious to see how rates will behave once the Chinese New Year festivities are over. At the same time, fundamentals for the big bulkers, the trade of which is closely tight to China, remain challenging. Chinese iron ore imports, despite reaching record levels, have been unable to help Capesize rates, while coal imports to the country are still pointing to a strong trend of declining consumption.
Lay-ups, an extreme thought not too long ago, have now become an everyday topic amongst owners. We also observe on a weekly basis that the number of 15yrs old vessels available for sale increases, while their owners are now more at ease with the idea of even selling them for scrap. Asset prices have naturally been plunging. Below are some representative example of the sharp fall.
Capesize
The “Nordtramp” - 170k dwt blt 2001 Koyo, Japan was sold last year at $17.1m, while the “Kohyohsan” - 172k dwt blt 2001 NKK, Japan was sold recently at $5.0m. Moreover, this summer we saw the “Churchill Bulker” - 179k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S. Korea committed in August at $37.0m, eventually failing and being sold three months later at $28.5m, 23% less. Two weeks ago the “Obelix” 180k dwt blt 2011 Imabari, Japan, was reported sold at $23.5m. Since the beginning of 2016, 22 Capesize vessels have been sold for demo, while 21 have been delivered.
Panamax
The “Thalia” - 75k dwt blt 2001 Hitachi, Japan was sold twelve months ago at $9.5m, while last week the “Cymbeline” - 73k dwt blt 2001, Sumitomo, Japan was sold at $3.3m a decrease of about 65%. The “Unity Pride” - 81k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S.Korea was sold at $17.6m back in April 2015. At Christmas we saw the “Archimedes” - 81k dwt blt 2011 Hyundai, S. Korea being sold at $14.5m, failing and coming up for sale once again, with interested parties not willing to offer above $12.0m. Since the beginning of 2016 a number of 33 vessels have been sold for demo, while 30 have been delivered.
It is definitely the “buy low” phase of this cycle. This of course is something that naturally leaves owners striving to survive utterly indifferent at the moment and logically so. But for the more fortunate ones, with cash to support their investment for a reasonable time, the opportunity to renew their fleet is undeniable.
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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