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Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Panamax2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards around the world, something which has been reflected in the S. Korean yards’ financial results of late. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted that “a new order here, a new order there and an ever shrinking order-book leaves the newbuilding market shrinking every week. It is no surprise therefore that we continue to see ever more shipbuilders being flown publicly into financial difficulties with many unable to support the finances and trying to strike deals with their respective financiers while others look onto finding new supporters for their troubled businesses”.

According to Allied, “once more, as in the past, it will be government support which will dictate the course of this industry, with overzealous governments throwing large amounts of cash in order to support the large labor forces utilized by this industry. Seeing another week of few in number reported orders and you can see how difficult the situation has become. At the same time, looking at recent trends in prices (or a lack thereof) and you can tell that we have hit a bottom from which its hard to move below this at the current moment de-spite the squeeze being put on by potential buyers. Putting all this together and way may well find a number of shipbuilders by the end of 2016 and mid 2017 with a zero orderbook (at least from commercial shipping)”.

Meanwhile in the S&P market, Allied noted that “on the dry bulk side, with another round of reported deals indicating further price drops and rumors circulating of even lower price levels negotiated for vessels marketed in the market, it looks as though we are set for another strong drop in values over the course of the next couple of weeks. At the same time many are still measuring their options in terms of laying up their vessels or cutting their losses while they still can (financially), meaning that there could still be a considerable amount of downward pressure on prices still hidden and waiting to be unleashed. On the tanker side, the recent shake up in confidence as to the freight market prospects has cost dearly in the secondhand market, with some sellers believe that now is the time to cash in on their assets while buyers have become less optimistic and are holding back price mark ups in reflection to this”, Allied said.

Finally, in the demolition market, Allied noted that “further price squeeze is put on every day by the vast number of demo candidates circulating the market, while demo buyers are still in the “beneficial” position of picking out the best candidates they can find. Despite this and what the price trends are showing, things in the market have started to improve with more and more end buy-ers managing to re-enter the market after a long period of being ab-sent after the developments noted in the market during the summer. This may well act as a slight boost, though it is doubtful how strong their appetite and ability to speculate right now may be, as such keeping a cap on their ability to “price up” the market rates given. It seems as though further discounts can be expected over the coming days, though given the recent trends the drop in price levels will re-main gradual for the time being rather then a sudden drop like the one noted in June of 2015. Further to this the Indian market now looks to be lagging behind the rest of the Indian Sub-Continent, with the Indian budget due towards the end of the month, causing a more selective buying appetite from buyers there”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News


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Friday, 12 February 16
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