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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 09 January 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SINKS 10% WEEK OVER WEEK TO AN ALL-TIME LOW OF 429 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, decline around 10% we ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY H1'16 REMAIN FLAT AS DEMAND DROPS OFF
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month, flat week over week. The price for coal has been in a Dull Market sinc ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2'16 DELIVERY CLOSED UP $0.13 AT $45.50 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Friday, 08 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES 1.6% TO 11.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7million short ...
Friday, 08 January 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S CRISIS DEEPENS AS RATES ARE DROPPING TO NEW RECORD LOWS BY THE DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Just when you would think that the dry bulk market is reaching its bottom, even as it has long surpassed all-time lows, each day that passes by at ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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