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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 03 May 16
HOW TO AVOID THE LATEST CARGO FRAUDS - BIMCO
BIMCO receives regular reports from members around the world about cargo fraud. This week alone we have had two reports of cargoes being fixed (or ...
Monday, 02 May 16
INDIA'S GANGAVARAM PORT SETS ALL INDIA RECORD FOR NON-COKING COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, the deepest and the most modern port in India, has created yet another historical milestone record by discharging 15 ...
Monday, 02 May 16
CS (I) 5000 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSES 0.11% HIGHER, 5700 GAR COAL RISES 0.07% W/W
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.78 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 02 May 16
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Saturday, 30 April 16
40 YEARS OF HANDLING COAL AT THE BTW IN WILHELMSHAVEN UNDER THE RHENUS FLAG
Press Release: The first bulk carrier with coal on board docked at the Bulk Terminal Wilhelmshaven (BTW), which is operated by Rhenus Midgar ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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