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Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
 Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in the beginning of the year are quickly being tempered by the harsh reality of the situation. Various factors have contributed, in varying degrees, to the formation of a climate characterized by apprehension and distrust towards the future.
China, once held as the main driver of global growth had a lacklustre performance during 2015. With imports falling, projections for 2016 being corrected and billions having been wiped off from the Chinese stock market, it is quite obvious that the effects of the stagnation of the Chinese economy would be felt globally. China’s stalling economy has had a great effect on various commodities with decreased demand driving commodity prices lower and lower.
Iron ore has had a bad year. With a ~39% drop in price during 2015, iron ore rallied during the end of year. However, while global demand is flat, supply has been growing, steadily driving the price down. The big 3 (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP) have, similar to OPEC’s strategy, been trying to price smaller, higher cost producers out of the market. 2016 is looking rather bleak, with most analysts expecting prices to remain low for the short-to-medium term future. Coal paints a similar picture, with prices falling and expected to fall even lower during the year. The bankruptcy of Arch Coal, the second largest miner in the US, is bad news for the industry. At the same time, major buyers such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. have decided on floating price contracts going forward, signaling that they anticipate prices may go even lower in the future. This of course, has had a large effect on the dry freight market which has been abysmally weak throughout the past year. We’ve observed consecutive historical lows on the BDI, and with various bulkers trading at – or below – OPEX levels, any recovery seems far off in the future.
One of the main issues prevalent during 2015 was the drastic decline in crude oil prices. Brent reached a 14 year low and, after a short 2 day rally, started dropping again and has settled, as of yesterday at $30.34/bbl. Predictably, this has had several adverse consequences especially for oil producers who have seen their profits crumble. It is still questionable whether recovery may occur within 2016. On top of this, with sanctions having been lifted, the Iranian oil ministry has commented that they plan on initially increasing output by 500,000 b/d. Iran’s oil production may very well apply further downward pressure on the price.
At the same time, the raging refugee crisis has dealt a great deal of damage to any stability in the European region. The massive inflows of refugees and the financial and political burden their accommodation has proven to be to the European member states, have all played their part in destabilising the European financial markets. This, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, further intensifies the ever-present political uncertainty.
Global financial stability has been compromised by this array of developments. Shipping, as a primarily reactive industry, has responded to the depressed market conditions and sentiment, exhibiting declining freight rates and asset values on the dry side. The future is almost certain to hold further challenges to the already beleaguered shipping market.
By Linos-Alexandros Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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