We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
 The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destinations across the globe; it is too complex to single out whether this is positive or negative for the seaborne dry bulk transport demand. Going forward, the Chinese steel industry is set to grow its global market share, currently at 50%. Depending on domestic steel consumption in China, use of domestically mined iron ore and profitability in the steel industry, the dry bulk market will be impacted. Chinese steel prices have risen since mid-December and currently, sit at the highest level since October 2015. International iron ore prices could slide further during 2016 as supply exceeds demand.
Since August 2015, dry bulk freight rates have continuously been eroded by deteriorating market conditions. As of 11 January 2016, daily freight rates ranged from USD 3,361 per day for a panamax ship to USD 4,416 per day for a supramax.
The brief lift in capesize rates at the end of November may be explained by the record-high import of relatively cheap iron ore into China. More shipments from Brazil contributed to this lift, squeezing out more domestically produced ore. No less than 96.3 million tons of iron ore were discharged in China in December 2015. This brought the full year total up to 952.7 million tons, 2.2% more than in 2014.
Whereas total transported volumes in 2015 are estimated to have stayed unchanged from 2014, some commodities set new records, while others dropped in significant volume. One of the highlights was soybeans, which also saw a new record high of imports into China in 2015. While soybean import into any other country hasn’t grown for two decades, Chinese imports went from barely anything to 81.7 million tons. China took 9.1 million in December alone, primarily for animal feed.
Despite these record numbers of imported commodities, dry bulk freight rates remain very low. This demonstrates the serious problem of the current market conditions for dry bulk shipping.
Supply
The prices offered to owners who wanted to sell their ship for demolition in the past year were very disappointing. All of the shipbreaking nations have been offered cheap new Chinese steel and accepted the offers. This floored the prices for scrap steel in nations that used to rely on it for around 80% of their steel demand.
Nevertheless, the freight market remains the most significant factor behind the decision to scrap a ship or continue trading. During 2016, BIMCO forecasts that dry bulk shipping capacity of 40 million DWT will be sold for demolition, making 2016 the busiest year on record for shipbreaking.
Despite devastating market conditions in 2015, “only” 30 million DWT were demolished. Considering the factors mentioned above, this illustrates that the pool of ready-to-break ships is not vast, but even a modest improvement in the freight rates causes demolition to halt.
Limiting the inflow of new capacity into the market going forward also requires a low level of new orders to be placed. In that sense, 1.4 million DWT of new capacity ordered during Q4-2015 is just what is needed. For 2015 as a whole, 17.7 million DWT was ordered. The lowest amount since 2001. Hopefully, 2016 will see even lower dry bulk tonnage being ordered.
For 2016, BIMCO expects new deliveries of 50 million DWT despite extensive postponements, delays and rescheduling. On record for scheduled deliveries, Clarksons report 92 million DWT for 2016. BIMCO assess that 40% of the scheduled deliveries will be delayed by one year. Moreover, the majority of the capacity will be delivered in first half of the year.
The distribution of new capacity is likely to remain unchanged from 2015. In round numbers that mean: 40% of the new capacity will be delivered into the capesize segment, 20% into panamax, 30 % into handymax and 10% into the handysize segment.
Outlook
If the CISA (China Iron & Steel Assoc.) forecast for a drop in steel production from 806 million tons to 783 million tons in China becomes reality, less iron ore is needed. Depending on the required mix of domestic/imported ore, shipping will be affected. China remains the key driver of the dry bulk market, for better or worse. Volumes are still huge but growth rates are likely to be very low and probably negative for some commodities.
BIMCO forecasts coal imports into both India and China will go down in 2016, following the trend of 2015.Volume losses into India in 2015 were not originally predicted. This went against a multiyear growth trend over the previous years. But, the domestic coal production rose on the back of some political decisions, which seem to work against dry bulk imports.
2016 is also likely to see a return of India to the iron ore export market – something that will be a positive for seaborne demand if market share is taken from Australian exporters, but a negative if it limits Brazilian Asia-bound exports.
For the coming months: January-April, BIMCO expects transported volumes to diminish as they traditionally do from the fourth quarter to the first. This increases a fundamental imbalance as the delivery of new ships in recent years has followed the opposite pattern. That is more new ships are being delivered early in a new year rather than late in the year just about to end, achieving the newest “year of built” for the record. As we move into the second quarter the downward pressure should ease somewhat.
BIMCO remains worried about the sustainability of freight rates in 2016. The demand side seems unable to buoy profits as both Chinese and Indian growth cools off and the rest of the world is still importing smaller volumes than before the financial crisis of 2008.
A new record of shipbreaking volumes in 2016 could limit fleet growth to just 10 million DWT, so in fact “all we need” is an increase in transported volumes to around 60 million tons to balance out the inflow. As little as this may seem, growing from a base of 4,700 million tons – it can prove to be a high bar to jump before we start eating into the significant oversupply of ships.
Source: BIMCO
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
|
|
|
Showing 2606 to 2610 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
|
| |
| |
|
