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Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
PanamaxAs one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market is unable to hold its ground and keeps scraping the bottom of the barrel time and time again. Meanwhile, apart from the inherent imbalance between demand and supply in the dry bulk market, shipping can’t seem to be able to benefit from any macro economical factor as well. As Allied Shipbroking pointed out in its latest report, major economies globally show signs of stuttering growth and troubling signs as to the course they will take over the coming year. “If that wasn’t enough, further geopolitical troubles are surfacing here and there, leaving little to be optimistic about”.

According to Allied’s Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, Mr. George Lazaridis, “this week we witnessed further sorrows come out of China as it posted its tenth consecutive month of shrinking manufacturing data. This was enough to spook investors further, pushing as such for another major drop of 7% in the Chinese stock exchange last week and activating a halt in all share trading. With further bad news compounding as both the U.S. and U.K. also posted a softer end to 2015, it wasn’t long before a series of major stock market drops was noted, with the FTSE 100 noting a drop of 2.6% which is its second worst New Year opening on record (worst opening was recorded in 2000 with a drop of 3.8%)”.

He went on to mention that “at the same time, China’s government and state owned institutions will have to undertake an equity buying scheme to prop up the stock market and sell dollars from their foreign-exchange reserve in order to stabilize and support the Yuan. This will come at a great cost and likely will not be sustainable, especially when considering that it cost China around US$ 300 billion of foreign-exchange reserves during the past 6 months to stabilize the Yuan. What’s worse is that such measures will only further weaken China’s demand for imports and could possibly trigger a global currency war, causing a further weakening in global trade and leaving shipping markets in an even worse state then what was witnessed in 2015”.

As though this wasn’t enough, “troubles in the Middle East continued to intensify as diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran came to an abrupt halt, leaving little hope of the ongoing issues in the region to be dealt with. It’s not without cause there-fore that the BDI took on a drop of 49 points from its last closing in 2015”.

Lazaridis noted that “it isn’t a great start to the year, but it might just be the nudge needed in the market to balance things once again. A careful rebalancing act has to take place in order to reset the market and reverse all the extravagances made in the past. China will have to find a better foothold and restructure its macroeconomic policies in order to properly pro up its economic growth, while the current turmoil allows for the next wave of devel-oping nations to find room to grow and take on their “economic catch up phase”. As an example of this, India is expected to note the highest economic growth this year amongst the largest world economies. Economies such as that of Brazil, which for years have been feeding their growth model primarily on the raw commodities they export will be forced to restructure and move onto more long-term sustainable growth patterns focused on “added-value”, he said.

Meanwhile, more so then anywhere else however, it is the shipping markets and particularly that of dry bulkers which will see a year of market correcting mechanism take hold. Scrap-ping will likely continue on its fast pace, pushing out excess tonnage from the market, while the lack in interest for investments in newbuilding orders will not only contain the fleet growth moving forward but will also likely cap in absolute terms the global shipbuilding capacity and prevent excessive ordering in the future as well. All this is a slow and painful process, but most of us hold hopeful that 2016 will bring about the underlining fundamentals needed to feed the next market boom”, Lazaridis concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News


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