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Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
 Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk market. This is also most probably the reason why despite the significant drop in prices for second hand tonnage, especially for modern assets and for vessels that are above 10 years old, has extended into this year, as limited investor interested is at this stage unable to support asset prices.
The big question that arises in the mind of many market participants is whether prices will remain at their current heavily discounted levels or if they will fall further. Bank financing is expected to have a crucial role in this, pretty much as it did during 2015 when a number of banks exerted pressure on many shipowners to conclude a number of distressed deals with profound implications for the secondhand market and asset prices more specifically. The following two comparable sales is a characteristic example of the magnitude of this exerted pressure on prices; in July 2015, the “GRACE FUTURE” (75k blt ’06, Japan) was sold at about $13.5m and just four months later, the “MARITIME HARESHIO” (75k blt ‘06 Japan), was sold for $8.5m, which represents a hefty 37% drop.
An important factor behind the falling asset prices, besides the poor condition of the freight market that is, is the number of newbuilding vessels expected to hit water in 2016, a substantial part of which was originally scheduled to be delivered during last year. The magnitude of the pressure the additional tonnage that was set to come in service this year would bring on earnings, forced many owners to sell tonnage at low prices during the last part of 2015, being certain that in the beginning of 2016 the situation would only worsen, something that they pretty much seem to have gotten right so far. As hard as it might be to look for silver linings at this stage, the exceptionally slow ordering activity in the Dry Bulk sector is without a doubt a positive development that will definitely help the market in the future. Let’s not forget that one of the factors currently impacting the market severely is in fact the large volume of newbuilding orders placed back in 2013.
Another remarkable fact is that the biggest part of the latest sales, especially in regards to modern tonnage (Cape resales, Ultramaxes, modern Kamsarmaxes etc) comes from listed companies. These sales significantly affect the ‘last dones’ and the market consequently, while at the same time it is extremely difficult for a private company to sell at such a loss its modern vessels. The biggest part of the market “experts” has very low expectations in regards to this year and to be fair macro data in regards to dry bulk commodities is not currently helping towards a more positive view. Nevertheless, in my opinion and as the market is already standing at historical lows, maybe market predictions should aim more on how long this depressed period is going to last and less on the fact that it will indeed be a depressed period, as pretty much everyone has gotten this by now.
This might be the year when prices for Dry Bulk vessels might bottom or not. The “right” time remains perhaps the single most important factor in investing but as this time can be rarely pointed out with precision, all a potential investor can focus on is a comparison between current prices and lows in previous cycles. In this respect, 2016 will be a year of opportunity for shipowners to invest but more specifically those shipowners who have made provisions for at least a few more depressed months ahead.
George Iliopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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