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Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
 Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk market. This is also most probably the reason why despite the significant drop in prices for second hand tonnage, especially for modern assets and for vessels that are above 10 years old, has extended into this year, as limited investor interested is at this stage unable to support asset prices.
The big question that arises in the mind of many market participants is whether prices will remain at their current heavily discounted levels or if they will fall further. Bank financing is expected to have a crucial role in this, pretty much as it did during 2015 when a number of banks exerted pressure on many shipowners to conclude a number of distressed deals with profound implications for the secondhand market and asset prices more specifically. The following two comparable sales is a characteristic example of the magnitude of this exerted pressure on prices; in July 2015, the “GRACE FUTURE” (75k blt ’06, Japan) was sold at about $13.5m and just four months later, the “MARITIME HARESHIO” (75k blt ‘06 Japan), was sold for $8.5m, which represents a hefty 37% drop.
An important factor behind the falling asset prices, besides the poor condition of the freight market that is, is the number of newbuilding vessels expected to hit water in 2016, a substantial part of which was originally scheduled to be delivered during last year. The magnitude of the pressure the additional tonnage that was set to come in service this year would bring on earnings, forced many owners to sell tonnage at low prices during the last part of 2015, being certain that in the beginning of 2016 the situation would only worsen, something that they pretty much seem to have gotten right so far. As hard as it might be to look for silver linings at this stage, the exceptionally slow ordering activity in the Dry Bulk sector is without a doubt a positive development that will definitely help the market in the future. Let’s not forget that one of the factors currently impacting the market severely is in fact the large volume of newbuilding orders placed back in 2013.
Another remarkable fact is that the biggest part of the latest sales, especially in regards to modern tonnage (Cape resales, Ultramaxes, modern Kamsarmaxes etc) comes from listed companies. These sales significantly affect the ‘last dones’ and the market consequently, while at the same time it is extremely difficult for a private company to sell at such a loss its modern vessels. The biggest part of the market “experts” has very low expectations in regards to this year and to be fair macro data in regards to dry bulk commodities is not currently helping towards a more positive view. Nevertheless, in my opinion and as the market is already standing at historical lows, maybe market predictions should aim more on how long this depressed period is going to last and less on the fact that it will indeed be a depressed period, as pretty much everyone has gotten this by now.
This might be the year when prices for Dry Bulk vessels might bottom or not. The “right” time remains perhaps the single most important factor in investing but as this time can be rarely pointed out with precision, all a potential investor can focus on is a comparison between current prices and lows in previous cycles. In this respect, 2016 will be a year of opportunity for shipowners to invest but more specifically those shipowners who have made provisions for at least a few more depressed months ahead.
George Iliopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING DIVING DEEP
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of glo ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike ...
Friday, 05 February 16
COAL INDIA EYES COAL MINES IN SOUTH AFRICA - PTI
“Coal India Ltd has plans of acquiring coal mines in South Africa,” an official said. It is looking at acquiring mines in partnership w ...
Friday, 05 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE 4.2% TO 13.6 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.6 million shor ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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