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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day, i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.
According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX. Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.
The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.
The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.
The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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