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Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
PanamaxThe dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the booming tanker segment and the rebounding LNG/LPG niches, then shipping could be very well be deemed as a recession-hit one. Yesterday, the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) retreated by 16 points to reach just 574.

Capesizes were the leaders of the fall, by losing 70 points to 931 points. All other sub markets were also down, except for the Handysize markets which were unchanged on the day.

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Fearnleys noted on the Capesize market, that “the Trans Atlantic market has been pushed up till earlier this week. For vessels opened in North Atlantic, hire went up to 8500-9000 USD level for one TCT in Atlantic. With a bit fewer ballasters to Brazil, the Tubarao/Qingdao freight rate was also going up to high 9 USD. 20,000 USD/day was reported for vessel open in Atlantic for one trip via Narvik to PMO/Japan range. However, the Pacific side was not as positive as the Atlantic. Though rates went up to very high 4 USD for west Australia to Qingdao, and tc hire went up to 8000-9000 USD/day earlier, rates for west Australia to Qingdao dropped again sharply and quickly to low 4 USD”.
 
Similarly, “the Panamax market remained uninspired with little light for owners with open vessels in both basins.Lack of new fresh orders either coal, iron ore, bauxite, fertilizers or grain giving the charterers the upper hand to pick and choose out of open tonnage. North continent was the only exception where early prmpt ships found employment instead of ballasting.Atl paying typically from USD 2500/3000 p/d. Fronthaul from ECSA to Feast paying in the low 6 + 180.000 bb now.In the pacific we see falling activity and rates arnd 3000 USD.Period activity very limited with index heading against a new all time low. 4/8 months concluded at tic over 5000 daily. 1 year deals would probably pay arnd USD 5500 if concluded at all”, Fearnleys noted.

In the Handy segment, the shipbroker said that “Supramaxes seem to have found a bottom. This is the case in both basins and although there is no effective period market, vessels are demanding slightly better numbers and getting same. The question is will it last and with the holiday season approaching we may see rates start to come off again as owners seek cover. Forward numbers are still under pressure, and although there is still some contango, there is not much freight optimism though next year”, it concluded.

Meanwhile, in the crude segment, Fearnleys said that “the VLCC market saw a steady strong demand as the charterers continue to pour cargoes into the market. Consequently the supply side rapidly became slimmer and rates firmed up. During the last two days higher levels have been recorded for nearly every new fixture reported. With some 90 fixtures concluded for December there are more to be done and owners will make the most out of the present strong momentum. The firm Meg market have reflected on Wafr, hence rates have also increased for the Wafr/East trade. The Nsea and Caribs have remained stable – in Caribs mainly due to problems with stem confirmation ex Venezuela.

The Suezmax rates have balanced at the W85 mark for WAFR/UKCM voyages during the past week. Although with a steady flow of cargoes, rates have dropped 2,5-5 ws-points due to little or no activity in other areas. In the Caribs, there are still problems in regards to stem-confirmation and it results in fewer cargoes. The activity in Bsea and Nsea has also stalled, leaving quite a few ships on the water ballasting towards Wafr. However, the 3rd decade ex Wafr is far from done, and with a climbing VLCC market, we might see the rates bounce back. The Nsea and Baltic continued in a sideways trend last week with rates not really going anywhere. Going forward into 2nd decade of December expectations are hoovering for sentiment to firm up a bit as more charterers will seek to employ ice-tonnage in the Baltic. In the Med/Bsea the market has been stable around w115/w117,5 the last week. Tonnage list have been looking rather balanced, and cargo activity stable. Now on the other hand, we have seen several charterers with fuel-cargoes going east, in addition to a busy Bsea program. This increasing activity as we are closing in on Xmas could push rates above w120”, the shipbroker concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News


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