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Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly ever since, it seems that many analysts and shipbrokers were caught by surprise, since they were admittedly expecting a better performing market during this period of year. However, as Allied Shipbroking pointed out in its latest weekly report, “it seems as though trade is at a much more dire state than what had been expected. During the past two months the slowdown has intensified, with the volume of cargoes in the market greatly outnumbered by the glut in tonnage supply and most market fundamentals pointing to extra deterioration in the balance down the line”.
According to Allied, “one of the main issues has been the aggressive and inward focused approach by most governments with regards to their exports and imports. Trade barriers seem to be lifting right, left and center, with the biggest focus of late been thrown on steel products. The issue here is that the excess supply coupled with slower economic growth leaves little room for beneficiary trade deals to be struck especially as most governments focus on aiding their own ailing industries. This “inward focus” leaves dry bulk shipping, in particular, in a very “sticky mess”. The vast orderbook which had been managed fairly well under the given circumstances is still presenting to be a grand issue and with deliveries scheduled to intensify during the next twelve months the problem will only get bigger for the time being”.
At the same time, as Allied’s Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, Mr. George Lazaridis pointed out, “it isn’t enough that only one size segment manages to hold back it’s fleet growth as the recent market trend has shown. The BDI may have reached its lowest point but all the individual sub-indices are still above their historical lows. This in part shows how it hasn’t been one size segment that has drown down the market average, but rather that all of them have reached fairly low levels, further showing the intense influence they now hold on each other. With such “sour” sentiment abound it is hard for any owner to take a strong stance when it comes to negotiating with cargo owners to push for better freight levels and while bunker prices have helped reduce voyage costs they have also in part help breakdown the “slow steaming” policy (in effect increasing the supply of vessels further)”.
Lazaridis went on to note that “the biggest scare for now is what the market will do in early 2016, were we typically witness a further drought in requirements during the Chinese New Year festivities. There is no guarantee of the actual direction the market will take as was pointed out this year during the highs reached in August (a seasonally low point in the market) as well as the current market trend (which is during a period in the year which is typically a seasonally high point in the market). Overall however even if a new low in the BDI is not hit during the first quarter of 2016, expectations are for a fairly low average freight rate to be achieved for the whole of the coming year. We will surely see an-other great effort in minimising the growth in the dry bulk fleet which should in part limit the excess supply of tonnage in the market, yet we will still need to see a drastic change on the demand side as well, something that as it seems can only come about by external market forces which can be highly unpredictable”, he said.
Allied’s analyst concluded that “for the time being we will just have to make do with the current market psychology that has engulfed us all, trying to turn turmoil into opportunity and as asset prices continue to tumble to levels never before seen, it will be the patient opportunists that will be able to squeeze the most out of this market trough once more”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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