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Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
 COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the pressure on US shale oil output, may benefit European refiners, Fitch Ratings says. These trends could support a wider price differential between the Brent and Urals benchmarks and a narrower differential between Brent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark, reducing the competitive advantage US refiners have over their European rivals.
The Brent-Urals differential rose above USD3.5/bbl in October from USD1-USD2/bbl earlier this year. The widening gap reflects higher availability of Russian crude in the Baltic Sea region as production in Russia reached post-Soviet highs. Saudi crude oil deliveries to Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN) and Preem in early November might have also contributed to the widening Urals discount.
Renewed supplies of predominantly lower quality Iranian crude following the expected sanctions relief in 2016 should result in greater competition between sour crude oil types. This is likely to support further widening of the Brent-Urals differential, benefitting Central European and some Mediterranean refiners.
We believe that MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas and PKN are best placed in our portfolio to benefit as they primarily use Russian crude oil in their refineries. Tupras, with its proximity to the Bosphorus strait, has access to a wide variety of crude types and will likely benefit from both the wider Brent-Urals differential and improved access and pricing of Iranian crude.
Mediterranean refiners such as Tupras were obliged to reduce purchases of favourably priced Iranian crude when sanctions against Iran were introduced in 2012. Once the sanctions are lifted, we expect a gradual ramp-up in Iranian crude output starting from the second half of 2016. This suggests widening Brent-Iranian oil differentials will be more pronounced from 2017.
Crude oil constitutes the largest share of refineries' costs and the ability to source crude at lower prices therefore has a significant effect on profitability and competitiveness. Western European refiners are better placed to use lighter Brent oil, while CEE companies have traditionally relied on heavier Russian crude.
In recent years, the competition from the US refineries in Europe intensified as they had access to oil at a significant discount to Brent. However the differential between WTI and Brent crude has now fallen to around USD2.5/bbl from USD8-USD15/bbl between September 2013 and June 2014 when US imports were at their peak. After some delay US shale oil supply has fallen and we expect the decline to be more pronounced from next year contributing to a narrower differential to Brent in the medium term.
Narrower WTI-Brent differentials will not be enough to entirely wipe out the competitive advantage of the US refiners that also benefit from low natural gas prices. But we think the narrower differential coupled with lower natural gas prices in Europe and dollar appreciation against the euro will improve competitiveness of European refiners.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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