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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
 COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the next five years likely to outpace additions.
In the Q&A below, Hong Kong-based Laura Zhai and Shanghai-based Charles Li of Fitch's Industrial Team, discuss the factors driving their forecasts for China's steel production, exports and consumption.
Q. Chinese steel production capacity continues to increase despite weak demand; when will capacity peak?
Fitch expects Chinese steel production capacity to increase to about 1.17 billion tonnes in 2015 from 1.15 billion in 2014. The increase in 2015 includes about 30 million tonnes of new capacity, which is partly offset by estimated capacity shutdown of 10 million tonnes. Fitch expects annual new capacity of around 16 million tonnes to be added in 2016 and 2017, although this will be offset by shutdowns of plants with total capacity of 75 million-85 million tonnes over the next five years. This will result in capacity peaking in 2016.
Fitch believes that future capacity elimination in China will mainly be driven by market forces rather regulations. Most of the regulatory measures implemented have already forced out smaller players and the plants that remain in operation are larger in comparison and comply with existing policies. Stricter environment standards could also cause financially weak steel producers to shut down because they will not be able to afford the required investments.
Q. China's apparent steel consumption declined in 2014 for the first time in 20 years, and the decrease has extended into 2015. What is Fitch's expectation for steel consumption for 2016 and after?
The decline in China's apparent steel consumption (sum of production and imports, less exports) was mostly due to slower fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth and de-stocking in the steel industry.
China's FAI rose by 10.2% in 10M15, slower than the 15.9% in 10M14, due to deceleration in activity in the manufacturing and property sectors, which accounted for 33% and 23%, respectively of FAI in China in 10M15. The slowdown in construction activity led to a collapse in steel prices. At the same time, steelmakers stepped up sales of their stocks. De-stocking is not captured in apparent consumption, contributing to an understatement of the apparent consumption figure.
Fitch expects FAI growth to pick up slightly in 2Q-3Q16, driven by real-estate construction activities, before reverting to a lower level of normalised growth 12-18 months later. Fitch believes that Chinese apparent consumption of steel will remain flat in the next few years now that de-stocking has ended, at about 760 million tonnes a year. Any substantial negative or positive surprises in growth rates are likely to be driven by swings in real-estate construction activities.
Q. What is Fitch's expectation for Chinese steel exports in the long term?
Exports of steel reached 93.8 million tonnes in 2014, but are likely to return to around 70 million-80 million tonnes a year in the long term. China's exports comprise product sales overseas and the transfer of production capacity overseas, which is known as capacity export in China, to alleviate overcapacity in China.
In the short term, Fitch expects Chinese steel producers to continue to enjoy cost advantages stemming from further depreciation in the Chinese yuan and lower material prices, which will help drive exports.
Over the long term, exports will be mainly driven by China's One Belt One Road plan, where Chinese funding for the construction of a network of transport, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure extending across Asia to Europe and East Africa will create demand for either Chinese steel products or Chinese-constructed production capacities abroad, as a means to alleviate current overcapacity issues in China. The implementation of this policy, though, will depend on domestic government funding and more concrete policy guidelines.
Q. What are the key challenges for Chinese steel producers amid oversupply and slack demand in the market?
Fitch believes that Chinese producers will need to invest in R&D to facilitate manufacturing of higher-value-added products. They will also be faced with more stringent environmental regulations, such as lower limits on sulphur dioxide emission (a major by-product of steel making). Meeting these new standards would require substantial investment with no significant benefit to EBITDA, which may reduce profitability for some steel manufacturers.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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