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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
 COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the next five years likely to outpace additions.
In the Q&A below, Hong Kong-based Laura Zhai and Shanghai-based Charles Li of Fitch's Industrial Team, discuss the factors driving their forecasts for China's steel production, exports and consumption.
Q. Chinese steel production capacity continues to increase despite weak demand; when will capacity peak?
Fitch expects Chinese steel production capacity to increase to about 1.17 billion tonnes in 2015 from 1.15 billion in 2014. The increase in 2015 includes about 30 million tonnes of new capacity, which is partly offset by estimated capacity shutdown of 10 million tonnes. Fitch expects annual new capacity of around 16 million tonnes to be added in 2016 and 2017, although this will be offset by shutdowns of plants with total capacity of 75 million-85 million tonnes over the next five years. This will result in capacity peaking in 2016.
Fitch believes that future capacity elimination in China will mainly be driven by market forces rather regulations. Most of the regulatory measures implemented have already forced out smaller players and the plants that remain in operation are larger in comparison and comply with existing policies. Stricter environment standards could also cause financially weak steel producers to shut down because they will not be able to afford the required investments.
Q. China's apparent steel consumption declined in 2014 for the first time in 20 years, and the decrease has extended into 2015. What is Fitch's expectation for steel consumption for 2016 and after?
The decline in China's apparent steel consumption (sum of production and imports, less exports) was mostly due to slower fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth and de-stocking in the steel industry.
China's FAI rose by 10.2% in 10M15, slower than the 15.9% in 10M14, due to deceleration in activity in the manufacturing and property sectors, which accounted for 33% and 23%, respectively of FAI in China in 10M15. The slowdown in construction activity led to a collapse in steel prices. At the same time, steelmakers stepped up sales of their stocks. De-stocking is not captured in apparent consumption, contributing to an understatement of the apparent consumption figure.
Fitch expects FAI growth to pick up slightly in 2Q-3Q16, driven by real-estate construction activities, before reverting to a lower level of normalised growth 12-18 months later. Fitch believes that Chinese apparent consumption of steel will remain flat in the next few years now that de-stocking has ended, at about 760 million tonnes a year. Any substantial negative or positive surprises in growth rates are likely to be driven by swings in real-estate construction activities.
Q. What is Fitch's expectation for Chinese steel exports in the long term?
Exports of steel reached 93.8 million tonnes in 2014, but are likely to return to around 70 million-80 million tonnes a year in the long term. China's exports comprise product sales overseas and the transfer of production capacity overseas, which is known as capacity export in China, to alleviate overcapacity in China.
In the short term, Fitch expects Chinese steel producers to continue to enjoy cost advantages stemming from further depreciation in the Chinese yuan and lower material prices, which will help drive exports.
Over the long term, exports will be mainly driven by China's One Belt One Road plan, where Chinese funding for the construction of a network of transport, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure extending across Asia to Europe and East Africa will create demand for either Chinese steel products or Chinese-constructed production capacities abroad, as a means to alleviate current overcapacity issues in China. The implementation of this policy, though, will depend on domestic government funding and more concrete policy guidelines.
Q. What are the key challenges for Chinese steel producers amid oversupply and slack demand in the market?
Fitch believes that Chinese producers will need to invest in R&D to facilitate manufacturing of higher-value-added products. They will also be faced with more stringent environmental regulations, such as lower limits on sulphur dioxide emission (a major by-product of steel making). Meeting these new standards would require substantial investment with no significant benefit to EBITDA, which may reduce profitability for some steel manufacturers.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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