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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
 COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the next five years likely to outpace additions.
In the Q&A below, Hong Kong-based Laura Zhai and Shanghai-based Charles Li of Fitch's Industrial Team, discuss the factors driving their forecasts for China's steel production, exports and consumption.
Q. Chinese steel production capacity continues to increase despite weak demand; when will capacity peak?
Fitch expects Chinese steel production capacity to increase to about 1.17 billion tonnes in 2015 from 1.15 billion in 2014. The increase in 2015 includes about 30 million tonnes of new capacity, which is partly offset by estimated capacity shutdown of 10 million tonnes. Fitch expects annual new capacity of around 16 million tonnes to be added in 2016 and 2017, although this will be offset by shutdowns of plants with total capacity of 75 million-85 million tonnes over the next five years. This will result in capacity peaking in 2016.
Fitch believes that future capacity elimination in China will mainly be driven by market forces rather regulations. Most of the regulatory measures implemented have already forced out smaller players and the plants that remain in operation are larger in comparison and comply with existing policies. Stricter environment standards could also cause financially weak steel producers to shut down because they will not be able to afford the required investments.
Q. China's apparent steel consumption declined in 2014 for the first time in 20 years, and the decrease has extended into 2015. What is Fitch's expectation for steel consumption for 2016 and after?
The decline in China's apparent steel consumption (sum of production and imports, less exports) was mostly due to slower fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth and de-stocking in the steel industry.
China's FAI rose by 10.2% in 10M15, slower than the 15.9% in 10M14, due to deceleration in activity in the manufacturing and property sectors, which accounted for 33% and 23%, respectively of FAI in China in 10M15. The slowdown in construction activity led to a collapse in steel prices. At the same time, steelmakers stepped up sales of their stocks. De-stocking is not captured in apparent consumption, contributing to an understatement of the apparent consumption figure.
Fitch expects FAI growth to pick up slightly in 2Q-3Q16, driven by real-estate construction activities, before reverting to a lower level of normalised growth 12-18 months later. Fitch believes that Chinese apparent consumption of steel will remain flat in the next few years now that de-stocking has ended, at about 760 million tonnes a year. Any substantial negative or positive surprises in growth rates are likely to be driven by swings in real-estate construction activities.
Q. What is Fitch's expectation for Chinese steel exports in the long term?
Exports of steel reached 93.8 million tonnes in 2014, but are likely to return to around 70 million-80 million tonnes a year in the long term. China's exports comprise product sales overseas and the transfer of production capacity overseas, which is known as capacity export in China, to alleviate overcapacity in China.
In the short term, Fitch expects Chinese steel producers to continue to enjoy cost advantages stemming from further depreciation in the Chinese yuan and lower material prices, which will help drive exports.
Over the long term, exports will be mainly driven by China's One Belt One Road plan, where Chinese funding for the construction of a network of transport, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure extending across Asia to Europe and East Africa will create demand for either Chinese steel products or Chinese-constructed production capacities abroad, as a means to alleviate current overcapacity issues in China. The implementation of this policy, though, will depend on domestic government funding and more concrete policy guidelines.
Q. What are the key challenges for Chinese steel producers amid oversupply and slack demand in the market?
Fitch believes that Chinese producers will need to invest in R&D to facilitate manufacturing of higher-value-added products. They will also be faced with more stringent environmental regulations, such as lower limits on sulphur dioxide emission (a major by-product of steel making). Meeting these new standards would require substantial investment with no significant benefit to EBITDA, which may reduce profitability for some steel manufacturers.
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Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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