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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
 COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the next five years likely to outpace additions.
In the Q&A below, Hong Kong-based Laura Zhai and Shanghai-based Charles Li of Fitch's Industrial Team, discuss the factors driving their forecasts for China's steel production, exports and consumption.
Q. Chinese steel production capacity continues to increase despite weak demand; when will capacity peak?
Fitch expects Chinese steel production capacity to increase to about 1.17 billion tonnes in 2015 from 1.15 billion in 2014. The increase in 2015 includes about 30 million tonnes of new capacity, which is partly offset by estimated capacity shutdown of 10 million tonnes. Fitch expects annual new capacity of around 16 million tonnes to be added in 2016 and 2017, although this will be offset by shutdowns of plants with total capacity of 75 million-85 million tonnes over the next five years. This will result in capacity peaking in 2016.
Fitch believes that future capacity elimination in China will mainly be driven by market forces rather regulations. Most of the regulatory measures implemented have already forced out smaller players and the plants that remain in operation are larger in comparison and comply with existing policies. Stricter environment standards could also cause financially weak steel producers to shut down because they will not be able to afford the required investments.
Q. China's apparent steel consumption declined in 2014 for the first time in 20 years, and the decrease has extended into 2015. What is Fitch's expectation for steel consumption for 2016 and after?
The decline in China's apparent steel consumption (sum of production and imports, less exports) was mostly due to slower fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth and de-stocking in the steel industry.
China's FAI rose by 10.2% in 10M15, slower than the 15.9% in 10M14, due to deceleration in activity in the manufacturing and property sectors, which accounted for 33% and 23%, respectively of FAI in China in 10M15. The slowdown in construction activity led to a collapse in steel prices. At the same time, steelmakers stepped up sales of their stocks. De-stocking is not captured in apparent consumption, contributing to an understatement of the apparent consumption figure.
Fitch expects FAI growth to pick up slightly in 2Q-3Q16, driven by real-estate construction activities, before reverting to a lower level of normalised growth 12-18 months later. Fitch believes that Chinese apparent consumption of steel will remain flat in the next few years now that de-stocking has ended, at about 760 million tonnes a year. Any substantial negative or positive surprises in growth rates are likely to be driven by swings in real-estate construction activities.
Q. What is Fitch's expectation for Chinese steel exports in the long term?
Exports of steel reached 93.8 million tonnes in 2014, but are likely to return to around 70 million-80 million tonnes a year in the long term. China's exports comprise product sales overseas and the transfer of production capacity overseas, which is known as capacity export in China, to alleviate overcapacity in China.
In the short term, Fitch expects Chinese steel producers to continue to enjoy cost advantages stemming from further depreciation in the Chinese yuan and lower material prices, which will help drive exports.
Over the long term, exports will be mainly driven by China's One Belt One Road plan, where Chinese funding for the construction of a network of transport, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure extending across Asia to Europe and East Africa will create demand for either Chinese steel products or Chinese-constructed production capacities abroad, as a means to alleviate current overcapacity issues in China. The implementation of this policy, though, will depend on domestic government funding and more concrete policy guidelines.
Q. What are the key challenges for Chinese steel producers amid oversupply and slack demand in the market?
Fitch believes that Chinese producers will need to invest in R&D to facilitate manufacturing of higher-value-added products. They will also be faced with more stringent environmental regulations, such as lower limits on sulphur dioxide emission (a major by-product of steel making). Meeting these new standards would require substantial investment with no significant benefit to EBITDA, which may reduce profitability for some steel manufacturers.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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