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Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, and 0.2 percentage point below the forecasts in July 2015. Global activity is projected to gather some pace in 2016 with estimated growth being at 3.6 percent.
From the ship supply side there has been a notable effort to find a balance. While during 2014 the net fleet growth was about 5 percent, things definitely look much better in 2015. This January the dry bulk fleet was 9,396 vessels and on November 1st 2015, the vessel count was at 9,623; a fleet increase for the ten months of about 2.5percent. About 560 new buildings were delivered from the shipyards against 331 bulk carriers that have been taken for demolition to the scrap yards. Even though this is half of the fleet growth witnessed during 2014, it has not been enough to offset the drop in demand that we have experienced.
This year one of the main drivers of demand, or lack thereof, has been China's, the world's largest coal buyer, appetite for coal. The excess coal supply has weighed on prices, so for the first eight months of the year, coal imports were down 31 percent compared to last year. Lower coal prices made domestic coal more competitive and seaborne imports have been negatively affected. However, low prices also affected domestic producers many of whom decided to reduce their production to minimize losses. In this way, imports were re-balanced (which explains the freight rebound of July) but only until the seasonal demand peak has finished and foreign coal became even more expensive as a result of the Chinese currency devaluation, meaning that imports could decline further in the coming months.
Back on the supply side, let's go forward and try and take a view on 2016. What we must note first, is that back in January the dry bulk orderbook for 2015 only, was almost at 1,000 vessels and as mentioned we had about 560 deliveries in the ten months of the year. From experience, the 215 vessels that are supposed to be delivered in the remaining two months will, to a certain extent, be pushed into 2016. So, the supply weight is shifted into 2016 where the remaining of this year's and an additional 879 bulk carriers are currently scheduled for delivery. Taking a statistical average 20-30 percent of slippage/cancellations and assuming that about 350 vessels will go for demolition (there are more than 900 vessels of more than 20 years old), then we are looking at another 2.7-3.6 percent fleet growth; with global growth projected by IMF at 3.6 percent any balance will be marginal.
So, the key in 2016 is to at least match the projected growth rate, without any negative revisions. Developed economies will continue their recovery and although China's gradual slowdown will continue as expected, there is potential from emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, and some other countries in S. America, India, Russia and countries in the Middle East that may be weak but are expected to improve and eventually offset China's slowdown. (Note: All figures concern Dry Bulk vessels > 20,000dwt)
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings/SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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Showing 2706 to 2710 news of total 6871 |
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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