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Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
 Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dry bulk freight rates. As we edge closer to the end of 2015 however, it seems that Chinese iron ore imports will follow suit and start declining, as the struggling steel industry, both in China and globally will limit iron ore seaborne trade. As such, it will take a significant net decline of the global dry bulk fleet, in order to offset this declining demand.
According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, “the steel market has made its way into the spot light this week, as several European states have increased the pressure on action to be taken against the excess dumping of “cheep” Chinese steel into their markets. The supply glut has been around for some time now and while global steel production has been on the decline for the most part of 2015, it seems as though the market is still out of balance and heavily over supplied”.
George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with Allied noted that “Chinese steel production for the year up until September has been down by 2% compared to the same period last year and with China representing just over 50% of the global steel production, this is a considerable drop in the total volume. However it seems that in an effort to slow down its production more gradually over the course of the year, China has been pushing a large portion of its excess supply onto other markets, causing a drastic drop in the price of steel while hoping to retain if not increase its market share. This has hit several of the higher costs producers, especially in Europe and the U.S. The U.S. and other countries have already taken steps in order to prevent market distortions brought about by this “artificially” low priced steel from China, while pressure has been now mounting from the U.K and other E.U. member states for similar action to be taken within Europe as well”.
He added that “with the Chinese steel industry already noting a strong decline this year and with trade restrictions now looking likely to push it into further decline, it looks as though we will likely see a drop in trade not only for finished steel products out of China but also in imports of both Iron ore and coking coal, with both these imports being the main trades for the Capesize sector. A key point to note here is that despite the slowdown in steel production this year, China has still managed to keep iron ore imports on the rise, using the opportunity of the currently low commodity prices to not only lower the average price of the stockpiles it held, but also increase the total volume of those stockpiles in order to hedge any future upward shift in price. This has translated into an estimated 2% increase in the volume of iron ore imported into China since the beginning of the year. The issue is that this rise has proved to be grossly inadequate in keeping the freight market for Capes buoyant. The big losses in the volume of seaborne coal trade has proved costly and with less vessels now actively involved in carrying coal to China there has been an increase in available tonnage competing for the same amount of iron ore cargoes. What makes this even more dramatic is that it has been done despite the fact that the total capesize fleet has remained overall on par in terms of vessel numbers with what it was in the final quarter of 2014”. Lazaridis noted.
As such, “taking this into account and with expectations now for a further slowdown in steel production (the level of which will obviously be dependent on the severity of any new trade restrictions brought about in the market) this will surely detriment things further, something that will likely be reflected in the first quarter of 2016 which is seasonally a low point in the market. Couple this with the fact that demand for industrial commodities such as steel is not showing any potential for strong growth, as demand from major economies such as China, Europe and the U.S. has been in decline, it looks as though the Capesize market still has a considerably large re-balancing act to make moving forward and although the orderbook currently stands at 240 vessels (equivalent to 16% of the current fleet) the number of vessels which are 20 years old or over are only 116 “, Allied’s analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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