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Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dry bulk freight rates. As we edge closer to the end of 2015 however, it seems that Chinese iron ore imports will follow suit and start declining, as the struggling steel industry, both in China and globally will limit iron ore seaborne trade. As such, it will take a significant net decline of the global dry bulk fleet, in order to offset this declining demand.
According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, “the steel market has made its way into the spot light this week, as several European states have increased the pressure on action to be taken against the excess dumping of “cheep” Chinese steel into their markets. The supply glut has been around for some time now and while global steel production has been on the decline for the most part of 2015, it seems as though the market is still out of balance and heavily over supplied”.
George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with Allied noted that “Chinese steel production for the year up until September has been down by 2% compared to the same period last year and with China representing just over 50% of the global steel production, this is a considerable drop in the total volume. However it seems that in an effort to slow down its production more gradually over the course of the year, China has been pushing a large portion of its excess supply onto other markets, causing a drastic drop in the price of steel while hoping to retain if not increase its market share. This has hit several of the higher costs producers, especially in Europe and the U.S. The U.S. and other countries have already taken steps in order to prevent market distortions brought about by this “artificially” low priced steel from China, while pressure has been now mounting from the U.K and other E.U. member states for similar action to be taken within Europe as well”.
He added that “with the Chinese steel industry already noting a strong decline this year and with trade restrictions now looking likely to push it into further decline, it looks as though we will likely see a drop in trade not only for finished steel products out of China but also in imports of both Iron ore and coking coal, with both these imports being the main trades for the Capesize sector. A key point to note here is that despite the slowdown in steel production this year, China has still managed to keep iron ore imports on the rise, using the opportunity of the currently low commodity prices to not only lower the average price of the stockpiles it held, but also increase the total volume of those stockpiles in order to hedge any future upward shift in price. This has translated into an estimated 2% increase in the volume of iron ore imported into China since the beginning of the year. The issue is that this rise has proved to be grossly inadequate in keeping the freight market for Capes buoyant. The big losses in the volume of seaborne coal trade has proved costly and with less vessels now actively involved in carrying coal to China there has been an increase in available tonnage competing for the same amount of iron ore cargoes. What makes this even more dramatic is that it has been done despite the fact that the total capesize fleet has remained overall on par in terms of vessel numbers with what it was in the final quarter of 2014”. Lazaridis noted.
As such, “taking this into account and with expectations now for a further slowdown in steel production (the level of which will obviously be dependent on the severity of any new trade restrictions brought about in the market) this will surely detriment things further, something that will likely be reflected in the first quarter of 2016 which is seasonally a low point in the market. Couple this with the fact that demand for industrial commodities such as steel is not showing any potential for strong growth, as demand from major economies such as China, Europe and the U.S. has been in decline, it looks as though the Capesize market still has a considerably large re-balancing act to make moving forward and although the orderbook currently stands at 240 vessels (equivalent to 16% of the current fleet) the number of vessels which are 20 years old or over are only 116 “, Allied’s analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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