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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
Monday, 21 September 15
KOMIPO OF KOREA INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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