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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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