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Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
 If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as China’s slowdown is curbing freight rates. As such, the high level of demolition activity over the first half of the year, helped rates pick up during the third quarter. According to dry bulk ship owner Pacific Basin, Handysize and Handymax market spot rates averaged US$6,000 and US$8,340 per day net respectively in the third quarter of 2015. While only marginally up compared to the same period last year, these average market rates represent a 23% and 30% improvement on the previous quarter.
According to Pacific Basin’s analysis, “the quarter on quarter improvement was largely driven by healthier conditions in the Atlantic on strong South American agricultural exports. Atlantic spot market rates reached early 2014 levels and have since declined as the South American season subsides. By contrast, the Pacific freight market has been relatively flat, demonstrating only a moderate improvement through July which has since been reversed. Weak demand growth in the Pacific is largely due to the continued slowdown in Chinese coal and iron ore imports which together represent a large proportion of overall dry bulk trade”.
Detailing the demand side of things, the ship owner noted that “year-to-date coal imports are 30% down year on year while iron ore imports have been largely flat. Year-to-date Chinese imports of a basket of seven minor bulks are down 2% year on year due mainly to a weaker start to 2015. Minor bulk trade volumes since March were higher than in the same months in 2014 and have lent some support to demand for Handysize and Handymax ships. In particular, Chinese imports of bauxite increased year on year, and imports of soybeans and cereal grains are substantially up. Chinese steel exports have also increased”.
It continued by noting that “on the vessel supply side, the pace of newbuilding deliveries in 2015 has closely tracked 2014 when we saw the lowest rate of new ship additions in 15 years. The high level of scrapping in the first half of 2015 gave way to reduced scrapping in the third quarter due to the improved freight market. As a result, the overall dry bulk fleet expanded by 1.3% net during the quarter, having previously seen no net growth since the end of January. The overall dry bulk orderbook has reduced to about 17% of the trading fleet, but delays, cancellations, conversions and shipyard defaults – primarily in China – are leading to fewer actual deliveries than scheduled at the start of the year. The ship supply surplus built up in 2010-2012 and slowdown in Chinese raw materials imports – especially coal – continue to drive overall weakness, and we continue to manage the business for a weak market in the medium term”.
Pacific Basin also said that “secondhand values have been substantially flat in recent months. Benchmark five year old 32,000 dwt Handysize bulk carriers are currently valued by Clarksons Platou at US$13.0 million which is unchanged since May. Handysize newbuildings are valued at US$20.5 million and the significant gap between newbuilding and secondhand prices continues to discourage new ship ordering and favours buying secondhand ships”.
It concluded by noting that “this weakness will continue to affect shipping businesses and could result in more companies experiencing financial distress along the lines of Daiichi Chuo Kisen Kaisha’s recent filing for bankruptcy protection”.
In a separate report, BIMCO said that “when traditional demand growth is not increasing, we need to look harder for future growth. Here the glut of high-iron-content ore in the international markets and the following low prices may finally bring around a sizeable substitution in consumption by Chinese steel mills, away from the domestically produced low-iron-content ore, in favour of imports”. Calculations done by BIMCO show that monthly imports into China could be 20mt higher per month (+26%). A total of an extra 240 million tons on an annual basis could bring deployment for around 155 Capesizes, assuming an unchanged distribution between Australian and Brazilian imports (75%/25%). Last year, Australia grew its share significantly as 90% of Chinese incremental demand came from Australia. As Brazilian miner Vale is expecting to grow its output over the next year, this would improve the prospects. Working against would be more Brazilian ore transported on 400,000-DWT Valemax class ships operated by the miner itself or related parties”, BIMCO noted in its report.
As such, it concludes that “for the coming months: September-November, BIMCO expects the supply of new ships to stay subdued and slow paced towards the end of the year. The deteriorating demand-side conditions are expected to be somewhat reversed as we move into the stronger months of the year. The vital commodities, coal and iron ore, are both expected to be in higher demand in coming months, enhancing owners’ and operators’ opportunities to find employment for their ships. Altogether this should support the freight rates although no large-scale improvement to the fundamental balance is likely to develop”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 30 September 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS $1.25 A TON AS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 0.72 (-1.78%) per t ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
NEW BUILDING MARKET INSIGHT
COALspot.com: This year has been, beyond any doubt, a rather strenuous one for the newbuilding market. Ordering activity with regards to Dry Bulker ...
Tuesday, 29 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ARE SLIDING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 28 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS UP $2.15 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery increased $2.10 per ton (5.15%) month over month to US$ 42.93 per ton. The ...
Monday, 28 September 15
CAPESIZE FLEET INCREASES BY JUST 1 VESSEL DURING LAST 12 MONTHS, IN POSITIVE SIGN FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
After a rather tumultuous period, the shipping industry and more particular the dry bulk market has started to adjust to the new realities of globa ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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