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Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
 If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as China’s slowdown is curbing freight rates. As such, the high level of demolition activity over the first half of the year, helped rates pick up during the third quarter. According to dry bulk ship owner Pacific Basin, Handysize and Handymax market spot rates averaged US$6,000 and US$8,340 per day net respectively in the third quarter of 2015. While only marginally up compared to the same period last year, these average market rates represent a 23% and 30% improvement on the previous quarter.
According to Pacific Basin’s analysis, “the quarter on quarter improvement was largely driven by healthier conditions in the Atlantic on strong South American agricultural exports. Atlantic spot market rates reached early 2014 levels and have since declined as the South American season subsides. By contrast, the Pacific freight market has been relatively flat, demonstrating only a moderate improvement through July which has since been reversed. Weak demand growth in the Pacific is largely due to the continued slowdown in Chinese coal and iron ore imports which together represent a large proportion of overall dry bulk trade”.
Detailing the demand side of things, the ship owner noted that “year-to-date coal imports are 30% down year on year while iron ore imports have been largely flat. Year-to-date Chinese imports of a basket of seven minor bulks are down 2% year on year due mainly to a weaker start to 2015. Minor bulk trade volumes since March were higher than in the same months in 2014 and have lent some support to demand for Handysize and Handymax ships. In particular, Chinese imports of bauxite increased year on year, and imports of soybeans and cereal grains are substantially up. Chinese steel exports have also increased”.
It continued by noting that “on the vessel supply side, the pace of newbuilding deliveries in 2015 has closely tracked 2014 when we saw the lowest rate of new ship additions in 15 years. The high level of scrapping in the first half of 2015 gave way to reduced scrapping in the third quarter due to the improved freight market. As a result, the overall dry bulk fleet expanded by 1.3% net during the quarter, having previously seen no net growth since the end of January. The overall dry bulk orderbook has reduced to about 17% of the trading fleet, but delays, cancellations, conversions and shipyard defaults – primarily in China – are leading to fewer actual deliveries than scheduled at the start of the year. The ship supply surplus built up in 2010-2012 and slowdown in Chinese raw materials imports – especially coal – continue to drive overall weakness, and we continue to manage the business for a weak market in the medium term”.
Pacific Basin also said that “secondhand values have been substantially flat in recent months. Benchmark five year old 32,000 dwt Handysize bulk carriers are currently valued by Clarksons Platou at US$13.0 million which is unchanged since May. Handysize newbuildings are valued at US$20.5 million and the significant gap between newbuilding and secondhand prices continues to discourage new ship ordering and favours buying secondhand ships”.
It concluded by noting that “this weakness will continue to affect shipping businesses and could result in more companies experiencing financial distress along the lines of Daiichi Chuo Kisen Kaisha’s recent filing for bankruptcy protection”.
In a separate report, BIMCO said that “when traditional demand growth is not increasing, we need to look harder for future growth. Here the glut of high-iron-content ore in the international markets and the following low prices may finally bring around a sizeable substitution in consumption by Chinese steel mills, away from the domestically produced low-iron-content ore, in favour of imports”. Calculations done by BIMCO show that monthly imports into China could be 20mt higher per month (+26%). A total of an extra 240 million tons on an annual basis could bring deployment for around 155 Capesizes, assuming an unchanged distribution between Australian and Brazilian imports (75%/25%). Last year, Australia grew its share significantly as 90% of Chinese incremental demand came from Australia. As Brazilian miner Vale is expecting to grow its output over the next year, this would improve the prospects. Working against would be more Brazilian ore transported on 400,000-DWT Valemax class ships operated by the miner itself or related parties”, BIMCO noted in its report.
As such, it concludes that “for the coming months: September-November, BIMCO expects the supply of new ships to stay subdued and slow paced towards the end of the year. The deteriorating demand-side conditions are expected to be somewhat reversed as we move into the stronger months of the year. The vital commodities, coal and iron ore, are both expected to be in higher demand in coming months, enhancing owners’ and operators’ opportunities to find employment for their ships. Altogether this should support the freight rates although no large-scale improvement to the fundamental balance is likely to develop”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 12 October 15
BDI WEIGHED DOWN BY CAPE
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has come back down again this week. The BDI is a benchmark index used to assess the overall cost of moving ...
Sunday, 11 October 15
TANKER SHIPPING: MORE OPTIMISM IN SIGHT FOR TANKERS IN THE WINTER SEASON - BIMCO
Demand:
2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil pri ...
Friday, 09 October 15
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2 PERCENT TO 17.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 08 October 15
CAPESIZE: MOST PEOPLE AGREE A SPIKE IN RATES WILL HAPPEN; WHEN, HOW LONG AND HOW SUBSTANTIAL? - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Depressives start of the fourth quarter, with c3 approaching USD 12 pmt and c5 presently in the mind 5's. According to Fearnleys ship br ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS DOWN 21 PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD IN 2014 - EIA
Coal Supply
Lower U.S.’s domestic coal consumption and reduced exports contribute to a forecast decline of 89 million short tons (M ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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