We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Sunday, 11 October 15
TANKER SHIPPING: MORE OPTIMISM IN SIGHT FOR TANKERS IN THE WINTER SEASON - BIMCO
 Demand:
2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil prices from mid-2014 created strength on both sides. Freight rates started to take off in October 2014 for all types and sizes. The combination of an early start to the fourth-quarter seasonal strength heading into winter and the fact that the oil prices continued to slide became a catalyst.
Throughout 2015, the global refinery throughput has been on a rise. The normal seasonal lower throughput in the first half of the year with widespread maintenance did not occur. Owing to rising and already elevated refinery margins from East to West, refineries simply wanted all the crude oil they could get. This development still provides strong demand and solid freight rates for the tanker industry. In India, we saw a record of 4.74 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude throughput in June, marking a truly global trend, whereas Middle Eastern refineries also hit a record throughput because of increased runs in Saudi Arabia.
October is traditionally another month of lower throughput as refineries get ready for the winter season when crude runs normally peak. Moreover, the American “Labor Day” on 7 September marks the end of the US driving season which started on Memorial Day, 25 May. This means that the recent 10mb/d production of gasoline will come down.
Some of that weakness may already have caused freight rates to come down sharply, in combination with the global financial uncertainties originating from China. Very large crude Carriers (VLCCs), Suezmax and Aframax have seen freight rates cut in two since mid-June, while Handysize has been the one to drop the most among oil product tankers.
In a rush of excitement, it’s easily forgotten that such high refinery crude runs can only go on for so long, if end consumption supports it. End consumption has supported it some of the way but not all the way. Swollen stocks of crude oil and oil products are now seen everywhere. Preliminary OECD total industry stock change in second-quarter was 1.1mb/d. All stocks but gasoline increased, US crude oil stocks too. In comparison global oil demand dropped by 0.1mb/d over the same period of time and is expected to see an increase of 1.6mb/d to be consumed for the full year over 2014.
Supply:
Contrary to what happens too often, the strong freight markets for oil product tankers have not resulted in a knee-jerk run to the shipyard to order a massive amount of new ships. This stands in opposition to the crude oil tanker orders seen in 2015, as if the lid has come off finally after several years of resisting the temptation.
By end-August 2015, 56 product tankers with a total capacity of 4.8 million DWT, predominantly LR2 (20) and LR1 (21), have been ordered and will be delivered in 2016-17. They are aiming to get a share of the market for longer-haul trades out of Middle East refineries, predominantly into the Western markets. This ordering trend has been on for two years now.
Among the crude oil tanker segments, we have already seen more orders for both Aframax and VLCCs than we did in the whole of 2014. Aframax in particular has been popular with investors this year; after six years with one order a month on average, 2015 has seen 29 new contracts in the first eight months. For the VLCCs, the orders with delivery in particular 2017 (21) and in 2018 (14) have been favoured by investors. In 2015, 50 new VLCC contracts in total have been signed.
One of the launchers which has lifted the freight rates into orbit is two years of very slow fleet growth. Today the fleet holds 648 VLCCs, whereas 628 VLCCs were active by mid-2013. That’s a growth of just 3% in 26 months. Looking forward into the future inflow of crude oil tankers, we can see the delivery pace is picking up and the demolition potential is vanishing with just 14 VLCCs being more than 20 years old and another 16 getting inside the window of the fourth special survey in 2016.
On order for a scheduled delivery during the next 16 months are 71 VLCCs. This means a double-paced inflow as it has taken 34 months for the latest 71 VLCCs to be put into active service.
The change in supply-side conditions will slowly tighten the freight market, and as we look into 2016, the tide could turn fundamentally as a fleet growth of 4.4% is likely to outstrip demand growth. As the coming two years are now “full” in terms of remaining in control of supply-side growth, any additional crude oil tanker orders should be placed for 2018 delivery.
BIMCO forecasts the present and next year supply growth for oil product tankers to be at 5.4% and 5.7% respectively, meaning two “full” years too for that segment.
Outlook:
Looking forward, the winter markets are expected to soften, as the eventual lower refinery crude oil throughput when no more stocks can be filled and margins begin to crumble as demand slips. Until then BIMCO expects earnings for both crude oil and oil product tankers to remain strong. Our expectations are primarily supported by low fleet growth for crude oil tankers and long-haul trades for oil product tankers.
High volatility in freight rates can be expected in the coming half year half a year, when it may also be prudent to look at the time charter market, where one- and three-year time charter rates are both at their highest level since 2009. At USD 48,000 per day and USD 43,500 per day, time charters will make positive returns after all costs inclusive of capital cost and depreciations are deducted.
In the longer run, an eventual repeal of the US crude oil export ban will likely have some impact on the tanker trading lanes. The US congress is set to vote on the issues during this autumn. For the supporters the case is clear: US refineries are saturated with light sweet crude which is produced abundantly. For those in favour of keeping the crude oil export ban still in place there is “national interest”, which currently seems to hold the upper hand. Currently, the only crude oil exports today go to Canada (0.5mb/d).
Moreover, the eventual lifting of international sanctions on Iran is likely to see a steady increase in crude oil, both sweet and sour, into the market over the coming one to three years, depending on much-needed investments to boost production and time to regain market shares. BIMCO expects the re-entry of Iranian crude oil into the market will change trade patterns as other suppliers will be squeezed on their market share. The key will be West African produced sweet crude now going to Europe and East Asia. The latter is the vital one and a stronghold behind the current upturn. The overall impact on the tanker earnings from these changes holds the potential to become both negative and positive.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 13 November 15
WEAK CHINA POWER DEMAND DAMPENS COAL CONSUMPTION - FITCH
The weak growth in China's electricity consumption in 2015, together with increasing non-thermal power generation capacity are exerting more pr ...
Friday, 13 November 15
DRY BULK, IT IS HARD TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The dry bulk owners looking for cover remained under pressure for size segments across the board. With Capes closing off the week as ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES TO 16.5 MMST; SLIDE 14.9% Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
FOREIGN COAL MINE ACQUISITION - STRATEGY VERSUS OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIAN UTILITIES - DIPESH DIPU
The acquisition market for thermal coal assets abroad is dull. Sellers of all hues are in the market; some are actively scouting for buyers while o ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP IN OCTOBER 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.254 billio ...
|
|
|
Showing 2716 to 2720 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
|
| |
| |
|
