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Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
EIA logo wCoal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all led to a decline in U.S. coal exports.

According to EIA’s the latest Short-term energy outlook, lower mining costs, cheaper transportation costs, and favorable exchange rates will continue to provide an advantage to mines in other major coal-exporting countries compared with U.S. producers.

U.S. Coal exports for the first half of 2015 are down 20% compared with the same period in 2014, and U.S. steam coal exports fell by 21%, or 4.1 million short tons (MMst). The EIA Short-term energy outlook further noted that, the 5.8 MMst of coal exports for June 2015 was the lowest monthly volume for coal exports since February 2010.

EIA projects U.S’s coal exports will fall by 18 MMst, to 80 MMst, in 2015, and then decrease by another 7 MMst (9%) in 2016. U.S. coal imports, which increased by more than 2 MMst in 2014 to 11 MMst, are expected to average near that level in 2015 and 2016.
 
US coal summary Sept 2015

U.S. Coal Consumption
EIA expects a 7% decrease in total coal consumption in 2015, with electric power sector consumption also falling by 7%. According to EIA, the lower natural gas prices are the key factor driving the decrease in coal consumption. Projected low natural gas prices (power sector natural gas prices are 27% lower in 2015 compared with 2014) make it more economical to run natural gas-fired generating units at higher utilization rates. The retirements of coal-fired power plants in response to the implementation of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) also reduces coal-fired capacity in the power sector in 2015, but because the retirements are occurring throughout 2015, the full effect will not be evident until 2016.

However EIA noted the projected rising electricity demand and higher natural gas prices next year are expected to contribute to higher utilization rates among the remaining coal-fired power plants. Even with continued implementation of MATS, which the U.S. Supreme Court recently sent back to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit for further review, coal consumption in the electric power sector is forecast to increase by 1.5% in 2016. Expected growth in renewable-based generation is one barrier to a larger rebound in coal-fired generation in 2016. Nonhydropower renewable-based electricity generation is expected to grow by 12% in 2016, with the largest growth occurring in the South (21%).

U.S. Coal Supply
Lower domestic coal consumption and exports, combined with a slight increase in coal imports, are projected to contribute to an 86 MMst (9%) decline in production in 2015. EIA’s Short-term energy outlook which was release on 9 September further indicated that, the coal production is expected to decrease in all coal-producing regions in U.S. in 2015, with the largest decline (on a percentage basis) occurring in the Appalachian region. U.S. production is expected to decrease slightly (3 MMst) in 2016.

Electric power sector stockpiles were 168 MMst in June (the most recent month for which data are available), a 4% decrease from the level in May. This decrease in coal stockpiles from May to June follows the normal seasonal pattern, where coal stockpiles begin to decrease as the U.S. enters the summer months. Coal inventories in June 2015 were 35 MMst higher than in June 2014 when inventories were still recovering from the effects of colder-than-normal temperatures during the 2013-14 winter season.

U.S. Coal Prices
The annual average coal price to the electric power sector increased from $2.34/MMBtu in 2013 to $2.36/MMBtu in 2014.

EIA expects the delivered coal price to average $2.27/MMBtu in both 2015 and 2016.


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