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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 23 August 15
SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES FALL SHARPLY ON EXCESS SUPPLY AND LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: The BDI continued to soften and was down 5.78 pct and falls back below 1000 points this week.
The cape Index lost 17.25 per cent ...
Friday, 21 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME FALLS 8.7% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million shor ...
Friday, 21 August 15
GLOBALCOAL TO LAUNCH ONLINE TRADING OF PHYSICAL MET COAL ON 13 OCTOBER
On 13 October 2015, globalCOAL will launch an online platform for the physical procurement and trade of high quality hard coking coal delivered FOB ...
Thursday, 20 August 15
COAL PRICES FALL TO 12-YEAR LOWS AS CHINA, INDIA JOIN DEMAND SLOWDOWN - REUTERS
Coal futures have fallen to 12-year lows, hit by soaring production and a slowdown in global buying, including from India and China which until rec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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