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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 23 August 15
SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES FALL SHARPLY ON EXCESS SUPPLY AND LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: The BDI continued to soften and was down 5.78 pct and falls back below 1000 points this week.
The cape Index lost 17.25 per cent ...
Friday, 21 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME FALLS 8.7% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million shor ...
Friday, 21 August 15
GLOBALCOAL TO LAUNCH ONLINE TRADING OF PHYSICAL MET COAL ON 13 OCTOBER
On 13 October 2015, globalCOAL will launch an online platform for the physical procurement and trade of high quality hard coking coal delivered FOB ...
Thursday, 20 August 15
COAL PRICES FALL TO 12-YEAR LOWS AS CHINA, INDIA JOIN DEMAND SLOWDOWN - REUTERS
Coal futures have fallen to 12-year lows, hit by soaring production and a slowdown in global buying, including from India and China which until rec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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